Ty Gibbs won his first Cup race in his 131st start. Many would have thought it would be sooner, but it’s not rare for a driver to need around 100 starts to earn his first win.
Of the 26 full-time Cup drivers who have a win, their average first career win came in their 91st start.
There are 10 full-time drivers in Cup who don’t have a win. Only one has fewer than 50 starts and that’s Connor Zilisch.
And yet, when looking at the drivers who might get their first career Cup win, he’s near the top of the list. But he’s not at the top.
Here’s how I’d rank the drivers who haven’t won and their chances to get their first Cup win this season.
10. Cody Ware (150 starts)
Rick Ware Racing No. 51 Chevrolet
With one career top-five finish and four consecutive finishes of 31st or worse, Ware’s focus isn’t on winning as much as trying to improve performance.
9. Ty Dillon (289 starts)
Kaulig Racing No. 10 Chevrolet
With no manufacturer support in Cup, it would take an amazing set of circumstances for Dillon to win a race. He has two career top fives and like Nemechek, he’s looking for his first top-15 finish of the season.
8. John Hunter Nemechek (121 starts)
Legacy Motorsports No. 42 Toyota
Nemechek has two career top-five finishes but more importantly, for these rankings, the Legacy organization is struggling. Nemechek hasn’t cracked the top 15 this year.
7. Noah Gragson (119 starts)
Front Row Motorsports No. 4 Ford
Gragson has three career top fives and if he was out front at the end of a drafting-style race, he’d have a shot to win. But he’s still looking for his first top 10 of the season.
6. Todd Gilliland (152 starts)
Front Row Motorsports No. 34 Ford
Gilliland might have snapped out of a slump with a sixth-place finish at Bristol. He has two career top-five finishes. He’d still be a long shot to win any race.
5. Riley Herbst (52 starts)
23XI Racing No. 35 Toyota
Herbst doesn’t have a top-five finish in his career, but he is driving arguably the best equipment of any driver on this list. And it did appear he had a shot (albeit a long shot) to win the Daytona 500.
4. Zane Smith (89 starts)
Front Row Motorsports No. 38 Ford
Smith has shown flashes of brilliance and has consistently performed the best among the Front Row cars. He has three career top-five finishes.
3. Connor Zilisch (11 starts)
Trackhouse Racing No. 88 Chevrolet
Zilisch will be a threat on the road courses. And he certainly knows how to win; he had 10 victories last year in what is now the O’Reilly Series. He showed he could still win at Bristol when he won the race in that series the day prior to the Cup event. But overall, Trackhouse appears to be a step behind this year and Zilisch’s best career Cup finish is 11th.
2. Ryan Preece (231 starts)
RFK Racing No. 60 Ford
Preece won the Clash at Bowman Gray and if there were more tracks like that on the schedule, he’d be first on this list. He’s running well, but his teammates (Brad Keselowski and Chris Buescher) are, too. And if his organization lands on something at the intermediate or superspeedways, he’s going to have to beat two solid drivers to capture the victory. But with his experience (Preece has seven career top-five finishes), he is the most likely to capitalize on a potential winning moment than any driver on this list.
1. Carson Hocevar (89 starts)
Spire Motorsports No. 77 Chevrolet
Hocevar and Preece are tied for the most points this year for a driver who has never won a Cup race. If there were more short tracks on the schedule coming up, Preece might be here, but Hocevar appears to have the potential to run closer to the front at more styles of tracks. He has five career top-five finishes.
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