Not everything will be million-dollar contracts and high-profile trades at the 2026 Winter Meetings. As every December, part of the league gathers in Lake Buena Vista, Florida, to hold the 2026 MLB Draft Lottery, an event that has completely changed the way the top amateur draft picks are determined.
And while traditionally the worst team of the season would be at the top of the order, the current reality is much more complex. With the new rules, not all teams with bad records can aspire to the #1 pick, and the Colorado Rockies are the most striking case of limitation under MLB’s anti-tanking rules.
What is the MLB Draft Lottery?
MLB introduced this system starting with the 2023 Draft. Although it is inspired by the NBA Draft lottery, it works with important differences:
- In the NBA, the 14 worst teams participate and picks can be swapped.
- In MLB, only teams eliminated from the playoffs participate in a lottery to determine the top six picks.
The worst records have the best odds, but any unranked team – even one with a winning record – can theoretically take the No. 1 pick.
This means that teams like the Mets (83-79) or Astros (87-75) have options, albeit minimal. Logically, the favorites are organizations with poor seasons, such as the Orioles (75-87).
2026 MLB Draft Lottery odds
- White Sox – 27.73%
- Twins – 22.18%
- Pirates – 16.81%
- Orioles – 9.24%
- Athletics – 6.55%
- Braves – 4.54%
- Rays – 3.03%
- Cardinals – 2.35%
- Marlins – 1.85%
- D-backs – 1.51%
- Rangers – 1.34%
- Giants – 1.01%
- Royals – 0.84%
- Mets – 0.67%
- Astros – 0.34%
The rule that leaves the Rockies out of the #1 pick
MLB added two key restrictions with the arrival of the lottery:
- A team cannot have a top-six pick for three consecutive years.
- Large-market teams cannot participate in the lottery in consecutive seasons.
The teams not eligible for 2026 are:
- Colorado Rockies
- Washington Nationals
- Los Angeles Angels
The most controversial case is that of Colorado
Is this rule fair?
MLB’s idea is clear: to avoid tanking and force teams to compete, spend in free agency and seek improvement. However, Colorado’s situation opens up an inevitable debate.
Argument in favor: it protects competition and prevents teams from deliberately losing to accumulate high picks.
Counterpoint: there are franchises that don’t tank; they simply make bad decisions and go through very long rebuilds. Punishing them can be counterproductive.
The Rockies are a perfect example: they have not been competitive throughout the 2020s, but that does not mean they are doing it on purpose.
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