The Premier League is on fire. Manchester City’s victory in the direct duel for the title on Sunday against Arsenal (2-1) has left the fight for the English championship closer than ever. Pep Guardiola’s side are three points behind the Gunners with a game in hand – which they will have to play against Crystal Palace – and have made goal difference a potentially decisive factor in deciding the future champions.
In the English championship, in the event of a tie on points, the tiebreaker is decided by goal difference and not by head-to-head, as is the case in the Spanish league. In other words, the difference between goals scored and goals conceded could be decisive on the last day of the championship.
With the victory at the Etihad against Arteta’s side, Guardiola’s City have a goal difference of +36, while the Gunners have a balance of +37. In other words, if City were to win their match against Crystal Palace by the narrowest of margins, a technical tie would be a reality. However, with five games remaining, it seems unlikely that the goal difference will end up at the same point for both teams.
Guardiola’s side have three home games and three away games ahead of them. The Citizens first have two consecutive away trips to Burnley and Everton, before continuing with the match in Manchester against Brentford, the trip to Bournemouth and the last two home games against Crystal Palace – the postponed match – and Aston Villa
The only precedent, favorable to City
Arsenal’s schedule seems a little more affordable, at least on paper. Five games ahead, three at home and two away from the Emirates. Newcastle and Fulham first at home, then a visit to West Ham, Burnley at home and the last matchday away to Crystal Palace. However, in between those first three fixtures is a demanding Champions League semi-final tie that could end up taking its toll on Arteta’s side.
Curiously, the only time in Premier League history (since 1992) that a championship was decided by goal difference was in the 2011-12 campaign and the winner on that occasion was Manchester City, who beat their eternal rivals, United, by a goal difference of +64 vs +56 for the Red Devils in a championship that both finished with 89 points. It was that Premier League title with Aguero’s goal, with Pellegrini on the Sky Blues’ bench.
Five matchdays – six in the case of City – lie ahead and two teams are evenly matched to the last millimetre. “It’s practically a new league. It’s a new Premier League,” said Arteta at the end of the game. Will we see a championship decided by a single goal?
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