“Bear Bets” are real wagers that Chris “The Bear” Fallica is actually making.
The Belmont Stakes is finally upon us.
The 158th Belmont Stakes will take place at Saratoga Race Course due to ongoing renovations at the iconic Belmont Park.
The post time is set for 7:04 p.m. ET on Saturday, June 6, and the race will be broadcast on FOX.
I fully believe we are in for another memorable weekend. And when it comes to betting on the race, I have you covered.
So let’s jump into my betting card and thoughts on this Saturday’s big race.
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1. Vitruvian Man: +3000 (bet $10 to win $310 total)
Trainer: Doug O’Neill
Jockey: Antonio Fresu
This is the longest shot on the board for a reason. They were nowhere to be found vs. So Happy and Potente in the Santa Anita Derby and will be nowhere to be found here. But a good time will be had by the connections for sure.
2. Powershift: +1200 (bet $10 to win $130 total)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Luis Saez
He ran a huge second to Emerging Market in his debut and then predictably regressed in his second start, which came in the Tampa Bay Derby. A romp to break maiden at even-money Derby weekend has resulted in Mike Repole and Todd Pletcher entering him here. While I don’t think he can win, he absolutely affects the flow of the race. He’ll be one of just a couple horses — Growth Equity most likely the other — on the lead. The faster the pace, the more it helps Repole’s other entrant, ML favorite Renegade. Expect him to hang around for 3/4 or a mile and then get reeled in by the big boys.
3. Chief Wallabee: +300 (bet $10 to win $40 total)
Trainer: Bill Mott
Jockey: Junior Alvarado
I thought this was the best 3YO in the country entering the Derby and a poor trip in the Derby, despite adding blinkers, resulted in a fourth-place finish. I still think this could be a potential monster in the second half of the year, but at some point, he’s gotta win. He finished behind Constitution in both starts in Florida. Despite a huge post advantage in the Derby, he finished behind Renegade there. Is there a chance Junior Alvarado has him a bit closer to the lead if the pace turns out soft? He should have a much easier and cleaner trip of it here with only nine horses in the field. But I do worry about whether things don’t go perfectly. Is he the type of horse where, each time out, something will go slightly wrong, and it results in another underneath finish? This race will tell a lot about what kind of horse the Chief is now and can become in the future.
4. Renegade: +200 (bet $10 to win $30 total)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr
He ran the best race in the Derby but just got beat by Golden Tempo. I didn’t think he had a chance from the rail, but Irad Ortiz Jr. did an incredible job to work out a trip and get him outside and nearly be the ultimate beneficiary of the pace collapse. He’s the rightful favorite here, but like Golden Tempo, will the likely slower fractions hinder him? I do think he has a quicker turn of foot than Golden Tempo, as we saw in the Arkansas Derby and the Remsen. So he might be a bit more likely to win without the pace meltdown. The jockey and trainer both know how to win this race. He’s got the recent preferred path of Belmont success — run in the Derby, skip the Preakness and then return five weeks later in the Belmont. There are people out there who think the horse can’t lose Saturday. I won’t go that far, but I do think he is very likely to run in the exacta and will construct some tickets around that thinking.
5. Ottinho: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Dylan Davis
Someone had to be second to Further Ado in the Blue Grass. And “Tag, you’re it, Ottinho.” He hasn’t run a race anywhere close enough to competing for a win here, and Chad Brown knows he has to step up in a big way, but can he grind his way around the track for a third- or fourth-place finish — which is a handsome payday? Unlikely, but possibly.
6. Growth Equity: +1200 (bet $10 to win $130 total)
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Manny Franco
His figures have gone the right way every start, but he still looks to class out a tad below the Renegade, Golden Tempo, Chief Wallabee, Emerging Market, Commandment group. I’m not sure handling Rudy Rodriguez Withers winner Talk to me Jimmy with ease in a five-horse Peter Pan means he’s a true contender here. I think he’s a bit of a de facto rabbit for the other Klaravich horse, Emerging Market. I expect him to be on the lead, pressing the pace set by Powershift to his inside and making sure Emerging Market isn’t too close to a hot pace, as he was in the Derby. He won’t win, but will have a big say in who does.
7. Commandment: +600 (bet $10 to win $70 total)
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: John Velazquez
He never really had a fair go of it in the Derby, as he was roughed up at the start and then hung wide. I don’t know why I have a negative view of his chances, though. John Velazquez is his fourth different jockey in four races. Did that Florida triple of wins in the Mucho Macho Man, Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby take too much out of him? Will his running style and flow of the race allow him to get there with his late running and grinding style? Both of his grade-stakes wins were by a nose and a neck. If you still believe, you’re going to get a price that you could only dream of after he ripped off five straight wins entering the Derby.
8. Emerging Market: +600 (bet $10 to win $70 total)
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Flavien Prat
This is the one that has my attention. Prior to the Derby, I felt either he or Chief Wallabee would win the Belmont, and after they ran fourth and 10th in the Derby and skipped the Preakness to point for this, I feel even better about my thought process. I did expect Emerging Market to run better than he did in the Derby, but I also didn’t account for him being far too close to a fast pace, stuck inside and then losing a shoe during the course of the race. But it’s the Derby and that stuff happens. I expect a much better trip here, and we should get a price relatively close to the 6-1 ML. Would be fitting for Saratoga native Chad Brown to get a Belmont win in the final edition of the race here at the Spa. One of the ones and my top pick from just off the pace.
9. Golden Tempo: +450 (bet $10 to win $55 total)
Trainer: Cherie DeVaux
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
This is a fantastic story, as Cherie DeVaux became the first female trainer to win the Derby and now looks to become the second female trainer in four years to win the Belmont Stakes. He’s improved figure wise in all five of his starts, but I still think he is at the mercy of the pace in front of him. He caught fast fractions in the Derby and he, Ocelli and Renegade benefited from that, occupying the top three spots in the trifecta. He likely will not get the same setup Saturday that he did on Derby day. And while there’s no reason to expect he will not run his race, I do think a win is a little out of reach. I’ll be using the stretch-runner underneath.
Suggested Ways To Bet The Belmont (adjust your dollar amounts accordingly to your budget)
$10 Exacta Key Box 8/4-3 $40
$5 Exacta Key Box 8/7-9 $20
$10 Win-Place 8 $10
$2 Trifecta 8/3-4/2-3-4-7-9 $16
$2 Trifecta 3-4/8/2-3-4-7-9 $16
$1 Trifecta 8/2-3-4-7-9/3-4 $8
Historical Notes
If a horse other than Golden Tempo wins the Belmont Stakes, it will mean 23 different horses will have won the last 24 Triple Crown races. Sovereignty last year would be the only horse in that span to win multiple Triple Crown races in that span (2019-present).
Only one of the last 11 Triple Crown races has been won by the favorite (Journalism 2025 Preakness). Seven of the last 11 were won by the fourth choice or longer.
If Golden Tempo does not finish in the money, it will mark the first time since 2010 the favorite finished out of the money in all three Triple Crown races. In 2010, Derby favorite Lookin at Lucky finished sixth, Preakness favorite Super Saver finished eighth and Belmont favorite Ice Box finished ninth. The 2026 Derby favorite Further Ado finished 11th and Preakness favorite Taj Mahal finished 10th. The last Belmont favorite to finish out of the money was Exaggerator, who finished 11th in 2016.
Four of the last six Belmont runners-up were trained by Todd Pletcher (2024 Mainframe, 2023 Forte, 2022 Nest, 2020 Dr. Post). In that span, Pletcher also won the 2022 Belmont with Mo Donegal.
Renegade and Powershift continue the trend of Todd Pletcher’s Belmont Stakes starters having just one word in their name. Each of his last eight Belmont runners had just one word: 2026 Renegade, 2026 Powershift, 2025 Uncaged, 2025 Crudo, 2024 Mindframe, 2024 Antiquarian, 2024 Protective, and 2023 Forte.
None of Brad Cox’s last 16 Triple Crown starters have finished better than third (2024 Preakness Catching Freedom and 2023 Derby Angel of Empire). The last time Cox had a horse crack the exacta in a Triple Crown race was 2021 when Essential Quality won the Belmont.
The four Todd Pletcher-trained and Irad Ortiz Jr.-ridden Belmont runners have run either first (2022 Mo Donegal) or second (2024 Mindframe, 2023 Forte, 2020 Dr. Post). Irad has the mount on Renegade Saturday.
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