The NFL Draft wagering market is a tough one to find bets that are worth a play.
The juice is either too expensive or you’ve missed the best number. These markets move with the same information we all get to read, hear or watch.
So either you get in early or have to pass.
With that being said, I believe there are still plays to be made.
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Over 1.5 quarterbacks in the first round
Fernando Mendoza is going first overall to the Raiders. Now that we have that out of the way, I also have my eye on another quarterback.
I’m wagering on Alabama’s Ty Simpson to be drafted at the end of the first round.
For starters, enough teams need a QB in this draft and would take a shot on Simpson early on. The Jets, Cardinals and Steelers come to mind. None of those teams have franchise quarterbacks on the roster, and they could view Simpson as a franchise guy down the line.
More importantly, anyone wanting a quarterback in the first round needs to pay attention to the Jets because they will kick off Day 2 with the first pick of the second round. This is excellent real estate for drafting a quarterback — no fifth-year option and no one drafting in front of you after the first-round ends.
If Simpson is still available as the first round gets into the 20s, it would make sense for a team to trade ahead of the Jets to grab their future franchise quarterback. There are plenty of teams at the end of the first round who’d gladly move back.
PICK: Over 1.5 quarterbacks in the first round (-130)
Over 4.5 cornerbacks in the first round
According to DraftKings Sportsbook, there are four cornerbacks expected to go in the first round.
There are no odds for Mansoor Delane because he’s a top-10 pick. Jermod McCoy’s first-round odds are -4000. Colton Hood is -350. Chris Johnson from San Diego State is -150. His odds have been moving from a short underdog to a bigger favorite in the first-round market.
The next cornerback is Avieon Terrell at +120. So, if we are going by the odds to be a first-round pick, the fifth cornerback is +120. I can get +350 for the same wager.
If you want to look at other books for the same wager, you can see BetMGM has Terrell and Johnson flipped but still four cornerbacks in the first round.
Cornerback is such a valuable position and there are teams at the bottom of the first round that could draft the fifth corner. The Chiefs desperately have a need at this position and if they go pass rush at nine, this would be a good spot for them.
The Seahawks at 32 could draft a corner. It’s also just a default position to draft if you’re stuck because you need three of them at all times. I like my chances on this wager.
PICK: Over 4.5 cornerbacks in the first round (+350)
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