Real Madrid closes the Champions League group stage at Benfica’s home. If a year ago it was left out of the top eight despite winning on the final day at Stade Brest, now it depends on itself to avoid the play-in.
With 15 points after seven games and third in the standings, Arbeloa’s team knows that, if they win at Da Luz, they will be among the top eight and will be at the mercy of the draw on February 27 for the round of 16. The question for Madrid, if they beat Mourinho’s team, is what position they will occupy among the top eight. Second place is an open possibility, depending on whether Bayern lose on their visit to Eindhoven. Right now, the goal difference favours the Bavarians: +2 (13-11)
If tied
In the event of a draw – a scoreline that is of no use to Benfica – Madrid will have to wait and see what the 10 teams behind them in the table with 15 points do: Liverpool (with the same), Tottenham and the plethora of teams with 13 points (PSG, Newcastle, Chelsea, Barcelona, Sporting, Manchester City, Atletico Madrid and Atalanta). It would be a huge turn of events for Madrid to lose their place among the top eight. Their +11 goal difference is better than all the others, there is a head-to-head (PSG-Newcastle) and Sporting finish at San Mames with Athletic still alive…
If you lose
If they lose to a Benfica side who can only do the maths if they beat Madrid, Los Blancos would be within reach of all the teams mentioned in the previous block, as well as two with 12 points: Juventus and Inter. This would put Madrid in the danger zone, because it is feasible that six of these pursuers could overtake them.
Their duels are these:Liverpool (15 points) – Qarabag
Eintracht – Tottenham (14)Atletico Madrid (13) – Bodo GlimtBarcelona (13) – CopenhagenPSG (13) – Newcastle (13)
Athletic – Sporting (13)Manchester City (13) – Galatasaray
Union Saint-Gilloise – Atalanta (13)
Napoli – Chelsea (13)
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