It’s Draft week in the NFL, but the Las Vegas Raiders have essentially been on the clock since the regular season ended. Fortunately for them, the choice at the top seems crystal clear: National Champion quarterback Fernando Mendoza. Mendoza is poised to become only the second first-overall pick in Raiders history (joining JaMarcus Russell in 2007) and the eighth quarterback selected at No. 1 in the last decade.
The Raiders were “all-in” this offseason, executing over 10 significant roster moves, but history suggests that a #1 pick doesn’t guarantee an immediate turnaround. In the last 20 years, only five teams picking first overall managed to finish with a winning record that same season.
Can Mendoza help the Raiders join the elite company of the 2008 Dolphins with Jake Long, 2012 Colts with Andrew Luck, 2013 Chiefs with Eric Fisher or the 2022 Jaguars with Travon Walker? It won’t be easy, as a grueling division featuring the Chiefs, Broncos, and Chargers will provide a trial by fire for the rookie.
The Jeremiyah Love Dilemma and the Power of Multiple First-Round Picks
After Mendoza, the board is wide open, and most intriguing is that six teams (Jets, Browns, Dolphins, Cowboys, Giants, and Chiefs) hold two first-round picks, making a flurry of trades starting on Day 1 highly likely. This surplus of draft capital among contenders could lead to an aggressive “arms race” for the draft’s most elite non-quarterback talent.
The biggest name on that list is Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love. Analysts are split on whether a running back belongs in the top five, a feat not accomplished since Saquon Barkley in 2018. However, Love’s resume is hard to ignore: 1,372 rushing yards, a 6.9 average, and a Notre Dame single-season record of 21 touchdowns.
If the Cardinals (#3), Titans (#4), or Giants (#5) pull the trigger, Love could land a rookie contract worth up to $50 million, bucking the recent trend of waiting until later in the top 10 for backfield stars like Ashton Jeanty (6th overall) or Bijan Robinson (8th).
Draft Day Drama: Ty Simpson’s Slide and the Trade War Rooms
While Mendoza is the locked-in QB1, the narrative surrounding Alabama signal-caller Ty Simpson is far more volatile. Simpson is widely considered the second-best quarterback in the 2026 NFL Draft class, but his draft stock is a polarizing topic in war rooms.
He is one of 16 players attending the event in Pittsburgh, creating the potential for some uncomfortable TV moments if he begins to slide. We saw Shedeur Sanders fall all the way to the fifth round last year; while Simpson’s floor feels higher, a slide into Day 2 isn’t out of the question if teams prioritize defensive needs early.
The wild card remains the trade market. With three teams holding two picks inside the top 20, the phone lines will be overheating. Last year saw four first-round trades, most notably the Jaguars leaping up for Travis Hunter, and 2024 saw five. With so many “win-now” teams like the Chiefs and Cowboys holding multiple assets, don’t be surprised if the opening night in Pittsburgh features more movement than a mid-season track meet.
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