The 2026 NFL Draft was already shaping up as one of the more volatile first rounds in recent memory.
Now, with final mock drafts and insider reports converging just days before Pittsburgh takes center stage, the picture is becoming clearer in one spot and far more chaotic everywhere else: Fernando Mendoza looks locked in at No.1, but after that, the board appears wide open.
Across the latest projections from ESPN, NFL.com and CBS Sports, Mendoza remains the consistent choice for the Las Vegas Raiders, who are widely expected to use the top pick on the Indiana quarterback after his championship-winning season.
ESPN‘s Jordan Reid, Mel Kiper Jr. and a panel of scouts and executives all landed on the same result at No. 1, reinforcing the sense that this is the closest thing to a sure pick in the class.
After that, though, the uncertainty starts immediately. ESPN‘s final projections and NFL.com‘s latest mocks show teams split on whether to prioritize upside defenders, offensive tackles or skill players near the top.
Arvell Reese, David Bailey, Francis Mauigoa, Jeremiyah Love and Sonny Styles are all appearing prominently in the top 10 depending on the outlet.
CBS Sports has also highlighted a fluid first round with multiple trade scenarios and several unexpected risers.
The biggest surprise may be how teams value quarterbacks
One of the most fascinating themes in the latest projections is how unsettled the quarterback market looks behind Mendoza.
While some mocks still place Ty Simpson in Round 1, others have him slipping into Day 2. The same uncertainty surrounds Carson Beck, Drew Allar and Garrett Nussmeier, suggesting teams may not feel pressure to force the position early.
That dynamic is already reshaping the board. Rather than chasing quarterbacks, several teams in the top half of Round 1 are being projected to strengthen premium positions instead, particularly edge rusher, offensive tackle and cornerback.
That has created room for prospects like Carnell Tate, Caleb Downs and Makai Lemon to generate more first-round momentum than expected a few weeks ago.
- Las Vegas Raiders – Fernando Mendoza (QB, Indiana)
- New York Jets – Arvell Reese (LB/Edge, Ohio State)
- Arizona Cardinals – Francis Mauigoa (OL, Miami)
- Tennessee Titans – David Bailey (Edge, Texas Tech)
- New York Giants – Sonny Styles (LB, Ohio State)
- Cleveland Browns – Carnell Tate (WR, Ohio State)
- Washington Commanders – Jeremiyah Love (RB, Notre Dame)
- New Orleans Saints – Mansoor Delane (CB, LSU)
- Kansas City Chiefs – Rueben Bain Jr. (Edge, Miami)
- New York Giants (via CIN) – Caleb Downs (S, Ohio State)
- Miami Dolphins – Spencer Fano (OT, Utah)
- Dallas Cowboys – Dillon Thieneman (S, Oregon)
- Los Angeles Rams – Makai Lemon (WR, USC)
- Baltimore Ravens – Olaivavega Ioane (G, Penn State)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Jermod McCoy (CB, Tennessee)
- New York Jets (via IND) – Jordyn Tyson (WR, Arizona State)
- Detroit Lions – Monroe Freeling (OT, Georgia)
- Minnesota Vikings – Kenyon Sadiq (TE, Oregon)
- Carolina Panthers – Omar Cooper Jr. (WR, Indiana)
- Dallas Cowboys (via GB) – Chris Johnson (CB, San Diego State)
- Pittsburgh Steelers – KC Concepcion (WR, Texas A&M)
- Los Angeles Chargers – Akheem Mesidor (Edge, Miami)
- Philadelphia Eagles – Max Iheanachor (OT, Arizona State)
- Cleveland Browns (via JAX) – Blake Miller (OT, Clemson)
- Chicago Bears – T.J. Parker (Edge, Clemson)
- Buffalo Bills – Kayden McDonald (DT, Ohio State)
- San Francisco 49ers – Malachi Lawrence (Edge, UCF)
- Houston Texans – Kadyn Proctor (OT, Alabama)
- Kansas City Chiefs (via LAR) – Colton Hood (CB, Tennessee)
- Miami Dolphins (via DEN) – Keldric Faulk (Edge, Auburn)
- New England Patriots – Cashius Howell (Edge, Texas A&M)
- Seattle Seahawks – Chase Bisontis (G, Texas A&M)
Trades could define the night
If there is one thing the latest mocks agree on, it is that movement is coming. Reid‘s final seven-round mock included four first-round trades, while CBS Sports has also emphasized that trade activity could dramatically reshape the board, especially in the middle of the round.
That makes teams like the Dallas Cowboys, Detroit Lions, Kansas City Chiefs and Pittsburgh Steelers especially interesting. All four have been linked in various projections to aggressive moves, whether to climb for a specific defender, secure line help or capitalize on a falling quarterback.
So while draft week has given the league one apparent certainty, it has also sharpened the mystery everywhere else. That tension is what should make Thursday night compelling: the top pick may be written in ink, but much of the first round still feels like it is being penciled in.
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