The Dallas Cowboys enter the final stretch of the 2025 season still clinging to hope of a postseason berth. But according to the latest projections from ESPN‘s Football Power Index (FPI) computer model, the reality is less optimistic.
Sitting at 5-5-1, the data-driven forecast suggests that despite flashes of resurgence, the Cowboys‘ path to the playoffs is filled with potential pitfalls.
The FPI model factors in remaining schedule, current pace, and strength of opponents to simulate outcomes across 10,000 rest-of-season scenarios.
For the Cowboys, the model assigns a win probability of around 42 percent in key upcoming matchups, significantly lower than desirable for a team traditionally accustomed to postseason runs.
Dallas cannot rely on its regular season form
One recent article shared that the Cowboys had a 42.6 percent chance of winning a pivotal game against the Philadelphia Eagles, illustrating how even individual contests carry major weight in their playoff chase.
For a franchise that has long been one of the NFL‘s most consistent playoff participants, the projections have caused alarm.
Analysts point out that the Cowboys‘ offense, while recently on the rise in terms of output, has oscillated between dominant bursts and alarming slumps.
Given the strength of the NFC field and multiple divisional hurdles, the data suggests that Dallas simply cannot such inconsistency.
The FPI algorithm’s description states that it is “a measure of team strength that is meant to be the best predictor of a team’s performance going forward for the rest of the season.
Projected results are based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season using FPI, results to date, and the remaining schedule.”
That level of rigor means the 42 percent chance should be read as a warning rather than a mere statistical footnote. One example of the odds being against the Cowboys was their 21-point deficit against the Eagles, and they turned them over that day, winning 24-21.
A forthcoming tough schedule to navigate
The Cowboys‘ upcoming schedule does little to ease the pressure. Games against the New England Patriots, Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers loom large, each presenting distinct challenges.
The model emphasizes that even a small upset loss could render their playoff hopes mathematically unlikely. In this sense, the Cowboys are playing with margin for error near zero.
Off the field, the coaching staff and front office are aware of the mounting stakes. Yet the FPI data serves as both a wakeup call and a diagnostic tool. It highlights that depth issues, inconsistent execution and a tougher remaining slate all conspire against Dallas.
In contrast to previous seasons, the Cowboys cannot simply lean on sustained regularseason dominance, they must finish strong amid rising internal and external pressure on the front office.
And for a team, brand and market accustomed to certainty, the position of needing to win almost every remaining contest is unfamiliar territory.
How the Cowboys respond in the coming weeks will determine whether this year proves to be another disappointment, or if it’s another demonstration that Brian Schottenheimer’s men are truly on the rise.
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