The possibility of Tarik Skubal changing uniforms continues to gain traction across Major League Baseball, and the debate is no longer about if he will be traded, but when, as early predictions that everything would unfold during the winter may have been off the mark.
According to recent projections from ESPN, the most logical scenario now points to the July trade deadline, with the Los Angeles Dodgers emerging as the most likely destination for the Detroit Tigers’ left-handed ace, just as he has secured his second Cy Young Award.
ESPN analyst Jesse Rogers offered a different reading of the situation. Rather than a winter move, Rogers believes Detroit will hold onto Skubal through the first half of the season before making a final decision.
The reasoning is straightforward: Skubal’s value will not decline if he continues pitching at the level that has made him the best starting pitcher in baseball today, and the competitive landscape could shift dramatically between now and the summer.
Skubal finished the 2025 season with a 13-6 record across 31 appearances, logging 195 innings – the highest total of his career since arriving in Detroit in 2020.
What do the Dodgers think about waiting for Tarik Skubal?
The Dodgers are not looking to rebuild or make a long-term gamble with Skubal, but they do want to strengthen their pitching staff, especially if they reach the postseason and face grueling series like the one they endured last year. To secure a third consecutive championship, Los Angeles understands the need for an elite and reliable pitching corps.
Los Angeles can absorb the cost even if Skubal arrives as a short-term reinforcement. Their rotation depth, financial flexibility created by deferred contracts, and a strong minor league system allow them the luxury of patience.
From Detroit’s perspective, the calendar also works in its favor. Skubal remains under team control through 2026, and extension talks, according to multiple reports, are nowhere near an agreement. The left-hander could reasonably aim for the richest pitching contract in MLB history.
At present, the benchmark is Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s 12-year, $325 million deal with the Dodgers, while the largest contract in Tigers history remains Miguel Cabrera’s $292 million extension signed in 2014.
The estimated figure for Skubal could approach $400 million, but league insiders believe that if this scenario is not seriously explored by Scott Harris’ front office, trade possibilities will become increasingly realistic – especially if Detroit is far from playoff contention by midseason. That scenario would dramatically alter the outlook for Tarik Skubal’s future.
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