Following the Monday Night matchup between the Panthers and the 49ers, the NFL season will enter its final third. This signals that teams like the Titans, Raiders, Jets, Giants, Browns, and Saints-who have delivered more disappointment than joy to their fans all season-are now mathematically near-impossible to qualify for the playoffs.
On the flip side, teams like the Eagles, Rams, Broncos, Colts, and Patriots are focused on securing the top seed in their respective conferences. Meanwhile, many others, including the Chiefs, Lions, Ravens, Seahawks, Steelers, Packers, Bears, and even the Cowboys, are desperately seeking a late-season surge over the final six games to clinch a playoff berth and compete for Super Bowl LIX in San Francisco in February.
AFC Tightrope Walk: Chiefs Face Steep Plunge with a Loss to Colts
With so many teams vying for playoff spots, every game is crucial, but for some, a victory this week is an absolute necessity. To provide a clearer picture, the NFL created the Next Gen Stats playoff probability model, which offers detailed estimates of each team’s postseason chances.
For the key matchup between the Colts (8-2) and the Chiefs (5-5), the model highlights the massive swing in fortunes:A win for the Colts would boost their chances of finishing as the AFC 1st seed to 21% and their overall playoff chances to 97%. A loss would drop their playoff probability only slightly to 85%.
The Chiefs, who currently have a 52% probability of making the playoffs, would see their chances climb to 63% with a win. However, a defeat would cause their probability to drop sharply to 35%, emphasizing their desperate need for a victory.
Among the current AFC division leaders, the Steelers (6-4) have the lowest playoff probability at 39%. A loss to the Bears (7-3) would drop them to 31%. Even if they pull off a surprise win, their probability would only rise to 52%.
This precarious position is largely because they still have two games remaining against the Ravens (5-5), who are on a four-game winning streak and are likely headed for a fifth against the Jets, which would put their playoff probability at 81%. Even a highly unlikely loss for the Ravens would still leave them above the Steelers at 61%.
NFC Elimination Game: Cowboys Face Catastrophic 3% Playoff Scenario
In the NFC, a victory for the Rams (8-2) or the Eagles (8-2) would push their playoff probability to 99%, with a loss barely affecting their chances. Teams like the Buccaneers (6-4) facing the Rams, the Seahawks (7-3) against the Titans, and the 49ers (7-4) against Carolina would see their probabilities soar past 90% with a win. Even with a loss, the Bucs and Seahawks would remain above 80%, though the 49ers would drop to a less comfortable 71%.
The team facing the biggest crisis is the Cowboys (4-5-1). They currently sit at a mere 6% playoff probability. Playing against the Eagles, a win would only elevate their chances to 11%. Crucially, a loss would slash their probability to just 3%, effectively ending their season.
This difficulty is compounded by the tight race in the NFC North, where the Packers (81%) and Lions (80%) surprisingly have a higher playoff probability than the current division leaders, the Bears (69%), if all three win their respective games. This is due to the Bears’ grueling remaining schedule, which includes games against the Eagles, the Packers twice, the 49ers, and the Lions.
It is important to remember that these are just statistical models, and while they offer calculated insights, anything can happen in the NFL to drastically modify these figures as the season progresses.
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