This is why the College Football Playoff exists. Two teams playing their best football of the season, two wildly different paths, and one national championship on the line.
We didn’t even know if Miami was going to get into the CFP. But the Hurricanes made it, and deservedly so, as they took down Texas A&M on the road, took down Ohio State and beat Ole Miss en route to the national championship game, which is in their home stadium. I can’t wait to see that atmosphere for the Canes fans down in Miami.
Indiana, on the other hand, had lost more games than anyone in the history of college football. But enter Curt Cignetti, and he said, “Google me, I win.” Everyone scoffed and said, “Who is this guy? What do you mean Michigan and Ohio State suck?” Well, we Google him, we understood that he’s won, and now he’s winning at Indiana. He’s 26-2 as Indiana’s head coach, and the Hoosiers are now no longer the losingest program in college football history.
So, I can only expect this to be a phenomenal game. But I want to really dive into this matchup and what we should expect when Miami’s offense and Indiana’s offense are on the field.
Indiana’s offense vs. Miami (Fla.)’s defense
If you want to stop Indiana and be within striking distance of the Hoosiers, you have to contain their running game. This is, first and foremost, a running team. I know that’s confusing to think when you consider Indiana has the Heisman winner at quarterback in Fernando Mendoza, who is probably the best of any quarterback at this stage of the season since Joe Burrow and Mac Jones led their respective schools to national titles. He’s also thrown more touchdowns (eight) than incompletions (five) in the playoff. But Indiana’s numbers on the ground are staggering, particularly in the College Football Playoff.
So, a lot of people think Indiana’s offense is about Mendoza, but that’s not the case. In fact, the Hoosiers’ numbers on the ground are staggering in the CFP. They’ve run the ball 90 times to 36 passing attempts because they’ve dominated the line of scrimmage. They do a great job at dialing up plays where Mendoza has the option to either throw or run the ball, whether it’s a run-pass option or check option at the line of scrimmage.
Miami’s going to have to stop that, particularly trying to contain Indiana’s running game on first and second down. If the Hurricanes don’t, the Hoosiers will put themselves in advantageous down and distances. Getting into manageable third-down situations is what has allowed Indiana and Mendoza to be so efficient, but this is really where this game boils down to when the Hoosiers have the ball. Miami has to put Indiana in a position to throw the ball because it has to, not because it wants to. That’s a very difficult thing to do, though.
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One of the things I look at in this game is disguise, particularly from Miami’s safeties. If you look at Miami’s defense, it runs single safety, whether it’s Cover 1 or Cover 3, just over 60% of the time. Miami’s very effective running that defense, meaning it’ll have that extra player down in the box to stop the run. I would anticipate that Indiana, at least early in this game and possibly on first down, will be throwing the football because it likes to call plays and check into plays where it can attack opposing defenses at its weakest. I look at Indiana to play on the perimeter early because of that look from Miami’s defense.
From Miami’s perspective, the question becomes how many resources do you commit to stop the run and force Mendoza to be in a third-and-long? Miami doesn’t run a ton of man coverage. There’s a lot of zone, but it allows its defensive line to work and own the line of scrimmage. When you’ve got Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor up front, you can do that. Those guys have been outstanding, and nobody in college football has more sacks than Miami. Putting pressure on Mendoza will be paramount for Miami in this game, even though it wasn’t able to do that to Trinidad Chambliss against Ole Miss. Ole Miss was able to avoid Miami’s pressure because Chambliss can get the ball out quickly and scramble around. SMU was also able to neutralize Miami’s pass rush earlier this season because it has a mobile quarterback, and the Mustangs were able to win that game.
How does Miami get pressure on Mendoza? That’s a big question. But there’s one matchup that favors Miami in this matchup, and it could be either of those ends, but I think it’s more specifically Bain against Khalil Benson at right tackle. I would load up against Benson, who isn’t a bad player but probably the weakest part of Indiana’s offensive line. I would try to get Bain 15-to-20 rushes against Benson in passing situations. Of course, you have to force Indiana into obvious passing situations. But if Miami can win that matchup, then Mendoza’s under pressure.
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Mendoza reminds me a lot of Michael Penix Jr. when he was at Washington a couple of years ago. One of the things Mendoza does is that he throws the ball so accurately. It’s more than just completions, it’s where the ball arrives and placement. What he generally does is that he throws the ball to the correct side of the receiver and plays with leverage. If Miami is able to control the running game, here’s the problem for the Hurricanes: Indiana has answers because it has a quarterback who’s playing better than anybody. If Miami stops the run, Mendoza still has the ball in his hands with threats on the outside.
Charlie Becker has become a real unsung hero for Indiana’s offense at wide receiver. He’s made big catches in every single game for Indiana since its win at Penn State. He and Elijah Sarratt win downfield. A 50/50 ball for Sarratt is more like 70/30 in his favor.
Those are the issues Miami’s going to have to deal with, so that’s why it’s going to have to be a defensive line-led effort for the Canes.
Miami (Fla)’s offense vs. Indiana’s defense
Miami has done such a good job offensively and has really transformed itself in the CFP. I know the Hoosiers wanted to be a run team all season long, but they didn’t run the ball with great efficiency until recently. Mark Fletcher has been a revelation at running back and the offensive line has controlled the line of scrimmage. That needs to continue. The way Miami controlled the line of scrimmage on offense is what won it the game against Ohio State. Miami has one of the better offensive lines in the sport and it’s playing as such.
If Miami is able to control the line of scrimmage when it has the ball, then it can do the same thing I talked about with Indiana when it has the ball. It’d put Carson Beck into manageable third-down situations. The Hurricanes have been so good on third down in the playoff, but the key has been running the ball. Miami protects the passer as well as anyone, leading the nation in pressure rate allowed. Most of Beck’s completions happen around the line of scrimmage. Fletcher’s averaging roughly 132 yards per game on almost 7 yards per carry in the CFP. So, they are owning the game up front.
And then, Miami has also been getting the ball to freshman wide receiver Malachi Toney. This guy has been unbelievable. I love watching Toney play and I hope he touches it 25 times because he’s so exciting. He’s one of those players you buy a ticket to see. He’s got 99 receptions this season, which is the fourth-most in the FBS.
Freshman wide receiver Malachi Toney has made many exciting plays for Miami’s offense. (Photo by Chris Coduto/Getty Images)
How does Indiana combat Miami’s third-down efficiency? Well, Indiana’s defense is outstanding. I thought Ohio State had the best defense in college football, but Indiana is giving it a run for its money. Indiana’s sound and unique in its structures. The Hoosiers’ defensive line gets after the quarterback, ranking third in the nation in sacks. So, they’re nearly equal to the Hurricanes. Indiana does a marvelous job of confusing opposing offensive lines and quarterbacks, getting the matchups necessary to get pressure. And the Hoosiers have done that against everyone, including Oregon, Ohio State and Alabama.
That’s what’s unique about Indiana’s defense: There aren’t a lot of quick throws available. Oregon tried to do that right out of the gate, but Dante Moore saw his pass go the other way for six. That’s why Beck’s experience is a huge part of this game, and it’s no mistake that experienced quarterbacks keep making deep runs in the CFP. He’s 32-5 in his career, and that should pay dividends against Indiana.
Indiana cornerback D’Angelo Ponds had a pick-six on Oregon’s opening drive in the Peach Bowl. (Photo by Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images)
I think it’s a very narrow path for Miami’s offense to have success. It has to establish the line of scrimmage and run the football. I don’t think Beck’s going to be able to win a pure passing game against Indiana’s secondary. No one’s been able to do that. That’s not a knock against Beck or Miami’s passing game. Ohio State, Alabama and Oregon weren’t able to have good passing days against Indiana. Indiana has an elite secondary, and Beck doesn’t throw the ball downfield a lot.
Indiana’s got to tackle well in space. If it does that, it’ll create conflict for Miami in trying to move the football. That’s what hurt Ole Miss in the Fiesta Bowl. But Indiana is one of the best tackling teams in the nation, ranking in the top five in the fewest number of missed tackles allowed.
Miami (Fla.) or Indiana?
The reason Indiana is an 8.5-point favorite is that this is such a narrow path for the Canes to win. It wouldn’t be a major upset if Miami won, but Indiana is so sound. The Hoosiers don’t have a weakness or make mistakes. What Miami has to do to even be in this game is to play mistake-free football, or it’ll be like Oregon in the Peach Bowl.
Miami also has to win the rushing battle on both sides of the ball, the turnover margin and likely time of possession and penalties committed. Even then, Miami still has to make plays at the end.
Fernando Mendoza is playing as well as any quarterback has this late in the season in recent years, according to Joel Klatt. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
Indiana has a lot of answers in its scheme, preparation and personnel. If you take Indiana’s run game, it still has Fernando Mendoza and three elite wide receivers. If Miami pops some runs, Indiana can change its schematics and clamp down on that run game. Indiana is the best-coached team in the sport, so Mario Cristobal is going to have to coach his best game.
Miami’s going to have to be virtually flawless. It’s done that a couple of times, including against Ohio State. But if Miami plays the way it did in the semifinal on Monday, it’s going to lose to Indiana.
You can probably sense where I’m going here. Indiana is too good. The Hoosiers’ soundness is suffocating. Their elite talent is immense. They’ve got highly-experienced players on the defensive side of the ball. I like Indiana by multiple scores.
Pick: Indiana 35, Miami (Fla.) 24 (Indiana -8.5)
Joel Klatt is FOX Sports’ lead college football game analyst and the host of the podcast “The Joel Klatt Show.” Follow him @joelklatt and subscribe to “The Joel Klatt Show” on YouTube.
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