What are the odds of another Madrid-Atleti final in the Champions League, a meeting that, ten years ago, pitted both teams against each other in Milan or twelve years ago in Lisbon?
The arithmetic answer is that there are few. Very few. Betfair has carried out a mathematical analysis based on the probabilities of the different possible scenarios according to its odds in the Champions League
The result of analysing these scenarios shows that Real Madrid has a 12.06% chance of reaching the final in Budapest (regardless of their opponent), while Atletico Madrid is two places below them, with 4.76%. The combined option, a derby, is around 2.31% likely. In other words, if this edition of the Champions League were played 100 times, only twice would Real Madrid and Atletico meet in the final.
It is a similar probability to snow five days in a row in the capital.
But if Real Madrid and Atletico are known for anything, it is for being stubbornly faithful in challenging any logic to break down the impossible. In the case of Los Blancos, with data to prove it: in the last decade they won five Champions League titles and never as favorites to win the title. In the case of Atletico Madrid, the two finals they reached against their eternal enemy were also against the odds.
Real Madrid vs Arsenal, the 3rd most likely final
Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid is the 10th most likely alternative, behind a Real Madrid vs Barcelona, which is given a 7.30% chance of happening. The most unexpected final: Liverpool vs Sporting Portugal, with just 0.91% chance… the most expected Arsenal and Bayern Munich with a 17.96% chance of all possible combinations.
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