If you’re thinking of betting on NFL Draft odds for the No. 1 overall pick, don’t waste your time.
At -20000 odds — meaning it takes a $200 bet to win one dollar — Fernando Mendoza is the overwhelming favorite. The Indiana quarterback is practically signed, sealed and delivered to the Las Vegas Raiders.
But things get more interesting from there.
“When someone is that big a favorite, the conversation seems to shift to pick No. 2. And it has,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said. “That’s the most-bet prop, the biggest-bet market right now.”
Feazel helps break down the most notable 2026 NFL Draft odds, ahead of the Thursday-Saturday event in Pittsburgh.
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Information Age
Before addressing the No. 2 overall pick, it’s first worth noting how NFL Draft betting differs from what bookmakers typically face.
“In the trading department, we like to use math,” Feazel said, alluding to how odds are set for games. “But the NFL Draft is information-based. When a bet comes in on information, the difficulty is deciding whether it’s a rumor or if the bettor on the other side has information. And whether a rumor is true or not.
“When you take math out of the equation, it normally isn’t that helpful to us.”
Sharp bettors often heavily engage in NFL Draft odds, and they tend to do well. It’s a tough event for sportsbooks to win.
“We have won sometimes, and we’re certainly trying to win. But we’re not expecting a lot of the information to go our way,” Feazel said.
Two-Man Battle
The No. 2 overall pick is still very much in flux, although it’s clearly a two-man battle between Ohio State linebacker Arvell Reese and Texas Tech defensive end David Bailey.
It’s so close, in fact, that as of Tuesday afternoon, Reese and Bailey are -115 co-favorites at Caesars. After those two, odds stretch out to +6000 for Ohio State linebacker Sonny Styles.
No surprise, information is affecting this NFL prop bet.
“It was starting to look like David Bailey was gonna be the No. 2 pick, so we moved him to the favorite. But then it was thought that the Jets were maybe trying to trade the pick,” Feazel said.
Don’t be surprised if Reese and Bailey’s odds continue to be volatile. And if a trade happens at No. 2, things could get much murkier.
“There could be someone who’s not even expected to be in the mix,” Feazel said.
QBs or Not QBs
Among the slew of NFL Draft prop bets available, one of the most popular is on the number of quarterbacks drafted in the first round.
This year, the expectations are quite low. Pretty much every sportsbook has the Over/Under at 1.5. However, the Over 1.5 is a growing favorite, now at odds of -225, with Under 1.5 a +175 underdog.
Mendoza is obviously a lock. The deciding factor is whether Alabama QB Ty Simpson is deemed first-round worthy.
“It’s kind of been going up and down. And it correlates to the price of Simpson to be drafted in the first round,” Feazel said.
In fact, it directly correlates. On the separate NFL Draft prop of players to be first-round picks, Simpson is -225.
However, there is a difference of opinion among bettors.
“It’s been two-way action, all based on speculation on Simpson,” Feazel said. “There are rumors that the Cardinals or someone else might be interested.”
Arizona has the No. 3 overall pick — which it certainly won’t use on Simpson — then the second pick of the second round, No. 34 overall. The thought is that the Cards might try to trade up from that No. 34 slot, into the first round, to draft Simpson.
But if you think Arizona holds pat and Simpson slips to Round 2, then there might be some betting value on Under 1.5 QBs. At +175, a $100 bet would net $175 profit (total payout $275).
More Popular Plays
Feazel said three more markets consistently draw attention in NFL Draft prop bets: players to be picked in the top 5, top 10 or the first round.
“Bettors are trying to find value at a plus-money price,” Feazel said. “One thing we saw recently, with the Giants sneaking back into the top 10, was interest on Jordyn Tyson, the wide receiver from Arizona State.”
Tyson had hamstring issues that kept him out of the NFL combine and ASU’s initial pro day. And previous injuries are a concern, as well, including a multi-ligament knee tear in 2022.
On Friday, though, he had a private workout that, by all accounts, went well. And the rumors are that the Giants are a strong possible suitor, after they traded Pro Bowl defensive lineman Dexter Lawrence to the Bengals in exchange for the 10th pick.
“Early on, we had Tyson at +220 to go in the first 10 picks. Now, we’re at -375,” Feazel said of the wideout going from an underdog to a favorite in that market. “He’s expected to be picked early.”
Tyson’s top-10 prop ties into the market for the number of wide receivers to go in the first round. Feazel said that Caesars opened Over 5.5 as a modest -125 favorite, but those odds are now out to -190.
Also, Caesars opened the prop of offensive linemen drafted in the first round at 7.5, with odds of -115 on both the Over and Under — a pick ‘em. However, Over 7.5 is now a substantial -280 favorite.
“A lot of people are expecting a big run of offensive linemen, from picks 10 to 20,” Feazel said.
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