Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
One matchup certainly stands out in a first-blush glance at NFL Week 6 odds: the Detroit Lions vs. the Kansas City Chiefs.
It could be a Super Bowl preview, though that would require the Chiefs to start looking like … well, the Chiefs we’ve become accustomed to the past few years.
Interestingly, though, the Lions-Chiefs point spread went an unexpected direction after K.C.’s wild Monday night loss at Jacksonville.
“The line is moving up toward the Chiefs,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said. “But the betting action is a different story.”
Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on Lions-Chiefs and other intriguing games, as we dive into NFL Week 6 betting nuggets.
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Money Machine
Kansas City is the three-time defending AFC champion and has won the conference title five of the past six seasons. The Chiefs have three Super Bowl wins in that stretch, as well.
But K.C. is just 2-3 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) so far this season, after Monday’s 31-28 loss to Jacksonville. Meanwhile, Detroit continues a trend that’s been going on since the middle of the 2022-23 season: winning and covering the spread.
This year, the Lions are 4-1 SU and ATS, winning and covering four in a row after a season-opening loss at Green Bay. More impressive: Detroit is a superb 41-12 SU/39-13-1 ATS in its last 52 games.
Dan Campbell’s troops are practically the equivalent of a free ATM for bettors.
Still, on Sunday evening, Caesars Sports opened the Chiefs as 1-point home favorites and moved to -1.5 on Monday afternoon. After Kansas City’s 31-28 loss at Jacksonville, the Chiefs actually advanced to -2/-2.5 on Tuesday.
Feazel intimated that sharp action on the host Chiefs helped move that number out. Detroit also has injury issues in the secondary, with cornerback Terrion Arnold (shoulder) out, and safeties Brian Branch (ankle) and Kerby Joseph (knee) questionable.
“The Lions really take the cake, with the excitement around Dan Campbell. They cover and score big points, and that’s what bettors really flock to,” Feazel said. “It’s mostly Lions money coming in, and a lot of money on the Over. That’s usually the case anytime the Lions are involved.”
Caesars opened the total at 49.5, and it’s already up to 53 as of Wednesday afternoon, with stops at every half-point along the way.
NFL Rocks On FOX
FOX has two intriguing games in Sunday’s early window: the Los Angeles Rams vs. the Baltimore Ravens, and the Seattle Seahawks vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Rams-Ravens was a lot more appealing a couple of weeks ago, when it shaped up to be a battle of Matthew Stafford vs. Lamar Jackson. However, as the point spread indicates, Jackson is fully expected to miss his second straight game due to a hamstring injury.
Caesars opened L.A. as a 7-point road favorite and got to -7.5 and even -8 on Sunday night. The Rams (3-2 SU and ATS) have been steady at -7.5 since Monday morning.
Injury-riddled Baltimore (1-4 SU and ATS) was a preseason Super Bowl favorite, but now is getting desperate for wins.
“The line definitely suggests that Jackson is not playing. Without Jackson, and in addition having top guys on their defense missing, it’s really made an impact,” Feazel said. “The Ravens were No. 1 in everybody’s power ratings just a few weeks ago.”
At midweek, Rams-Ravens betting interest is tempered.
“People aren’t really interested in either side, staying away from that 7.5,” Feazel said, while noting the total is getting a little attention. “Some Over money came in. It’s a low total (44.5), and the Ravens have one of the worst defenses in the league.”
Rams-Ravens is a 1 p.m. ET kick, as is Seahawks-Jaguars. Jacksonville is a surprising 4-1 SU and ATS, while Seattle is 3-2 SU and ATS.
This matchup has hovered around pick ‘em. Caesars opened the Jags -1 at home, and the line flipped as far as Seahawks -1.5 on Monday. But in the wake of Jacksonville’s big Monday night win over Kansas City, the spread flipped to Jaguars -1.5, and it’s Jags -1 as of Wednesday evening.
“We’re seeing a little more Seahawks money at the moment, but nothing to write home about,” Feazel said. “I don’t know if people truly believe in Jacksonville yet. But the Jaguars look far better than they did a year ago.”
At this point last season, Jacksonville was 1-4 SU and on the way to a 4-13 SU campaign.
NFL Sharp Side
Professional bettor Randy McKay is getting involved with a lower-profile game in the 1 p.m. ET Sunday window: the Cleveland Browns vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers.
McKay is on Pittsburgh -4.5 at home vs. a Cleveland team with rookie QB Dillon Gabriel making his second start.
“This is a huge scheduling spot here for Pittsburgh, coming off the bye, playing Cleveland, which doesn’t have a bye after a London game,” McKay said, alluding to the Browns’ 21-17 loss to Minnesota across the pond last weekend. “Getting the rookie Gabriel in his first true road start gives this game added value.”
Thursday Theater
The Thursday night game pits the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles (4-1 SU/3-2 ATS) against the New York Giants (1-4 SU/2-3 ATS).
Rookie QB Jaxson Dart will make his third start, going 1-1 so far. And at least one bettor has faith in the youngster and his Giants.
“We did take a very large wager on the Giants on Monday, +7.5 (-113) for $339,000,” Feazel said.
Caesars opened Philly as a 7-point road favorite and has toggled between -7/-7.5 through Wednesday evening.
“Outside of the big bet, it’s more split, and I expect that to continue. The public is very fond of the Eagles, and there’s a lot of excitement around Dart,” Feazel said.
I Like Big Bets And I Cannot Lie
Obviously, that $339,000 bet leads the way so far in wagering on NFL Week 6 odds. If the Giants can keep it within a touchdown, then the bettor profits $300,000, for a total payout of $639,000.
There’s not too much else in the way of major wagers yet, but here’s a great leftover from Monday Night Football, because I like small bets and I cannot lie, too: $15 on a defensive player to score a touchdown in the Chiefs-Jags game, at +6500.
The DraftKings Sportsbook bettor was banking on Devin Lloyd’s aggressive play to continue, and it did, as the Jaguars linebacker had a 99-yard interception return for a touchdown.
So that modest 15 bucks turned into $990. That’s the kind of ROI I can get behind, at a bet size we can all relate to.
Enjoy the NFL Week 6 games!
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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