It’s still too early to see how teams are shaping up, but the first Saturday of the MLB season always feels a bit special.
We’re answering the big questions ahead of Saturday’s MLB on FOX slate, including the Yankees eyeing a sweep of a Giants team that still hasn’t scored a run:
1. Did the Yanks do enough to get on top of the AL East? What could be the determining factor?
Thosar: The Yankees are running back almost an identical roster as the one they ended with last year because they’re relying on rising stars to take steps forward, and the rotation has the chance to be the best in baseball this season, particularly after Gerrit Cole returns from Tommy John rehab sometime around May. Catcher/first baseman Ben Rice has elite offensive metrics, second baseman Jazz Chisholm is motivated to have a super successful walk year, and catcher Austin Wells is due to breakout at the plate. If things go right, then the offense is built to go as far as Aaron Judge takes them, and the Yankees have done enough to win the AL East. Of course, it’s not that simple, either.
Their three determining factors are health, wins against division rivals, and sharpening their fundamentals. The Yankees performed poorly against the Blue Jays and Red Sox in last year’s regular season, with Toronto winning the season series (8-5) and Boston dominating (9-4) in head-to-head matchups. Those results cost the Yankees the division title last year. This season, they have to prove they can step up against the top AL East teams from beginning to end. As much as the Bronx Bombers want to make a deep postseason run and go back to the World Series, they also have to play just as hard and keep up their intensity in the long 162-game schedule.
The familiar June swoons and lapses in concentration have led to fielding errors and a complete absence of fundamentals in recent years. Too often, simple mistakes have been at the heart of frustrating and avoidable losses, to the point where opponents are just waiting for the Yankees to slip up. This year’s team needs to be dialed in every step of the way.
2. The Giants are an intriguing team for their manager move in Tony Vitello. What’s the upside here?
Thosar: Vitello’s jump from college coach to MLB manager is unprecedented, but the allure and hype around his hire will quickly wear off if the Giants don’t win consistently. Already, Vitello has made some questionable comments about his perspective on wins and losses that have made fans wonder if he’s ready for the big leagues. So he’s facing a ton of pressure to win games, all while staying true to the core beliefs and coaching tactics that led to a .772 winning percentage as the University of Tennessee head baseball coach.
For the Giants, Vitello’s upside is his ability to think outside the box and bring a new culture and edge into the organization. He’s known to bring a fiery and emotional coaching style that could certainly help inject energy into a Giants team that sometimes falls flat. If Vitello can help establish a clearer identity based on grittiness and aggression, that will actually matter over the course of the long season. Vitello is also known to be an excellent communicator, which should help younger players develop and lead to faster buy-in throughout the clubhouse.
In the end, though, the new Giants skipper will have to learn in-game tactics on the fly and quickly adapt to data-heavy processes in MLB without getting overwhelmed by it all. It goes without saying that Vitello has a lot on his plate in his rookie managerial season. But if he can avoid burnout and lead a team that overperforms expectations through energy and a fearless style of play, then this hire might just work out exactly how Buster Posey expected it to.
3. Similarly to the Yankees, the Orioles are in a crowded AL East. How legit could the O’s be this season?
Kavner: I think they’re a real threat. I don’t expect them to win the division, but I do expect them to get one of the final wild-card spots and get back to the playoffs. The Orioles weren’t messing around this winter coming off last year’s embarrassing last-place finish, finally spending to put established talents around their young core. Pete Alonso and Taylor Ward give them more power. Shane Baz increases the ceiling of the rotation, and the signing of Chris Bassitt (and re-signing of Zach Eflin) lift the floor. Ryan Helsley gives them the closer they’ve missed since Felix Bautista went down. The early-season injuries to Jackson Holliday and Jordan Westburg hurt, but when healthy, this could be one of the best lineups in baseball and help make up for any concerns with the pitching staff.
As of Friday afternoon, FanGraphs had them as the clear No. 4 team in the division (12.3% chance to win the AL East) but with a nearly 50% chance to make the playoffs. I expect the difference between the first and fourth place teams in this division will be only a handful of games, and though they’ll all beat up on each other throughout the year, I think four teams make it into the postseason from the AL East. The division is that good.
4. We have a bunch of guys who showed out during the WBC. Who is poised for a standout MLB season?
Kavner: It goes without saying that Bobby Witt Jr. will have a standout season, so I’ll take a different player from both clubs (who were teammates for WBC champions Venezuela) and go with Ronald Acuña Jr. and Maikel Garcia. I know, I know, SCORCHING HOT take here that Acuña will be good. But another year removed from the latest ACL tear, this could be the year we see Acuña looking closer to his 2023 MVP form.
Now, I’m not predicting another 40-70 season on two surgically-repaired knees, but he can still scoot. Acuña’s sprint speed last year wasn’t far off from 2023, and though he only stole nine bases last season, he was also only caught once and was clearly being careful in his first year back from the knee injury. This winter, he hit four homers and stole 11 bases in 16 games in the Venezuelan Winter League. He hit another two homers and stole another two bases at the World Baseball Classic. Another 40-40 season in which he re-establishes his place among the game’s elite could be within reach. And behind Shohei Ohtani, Acuña is as good a guess as any to win another MVP trophy.
García’s breakout All-Star season last year in Kansas City might’ve flown under the radar for those outside the midwest, but he put his name on the international map at the WBC. In a tournament that featured many of the game’s superstars, it was the 26-year-old Royals third baseman who took home MVP honors. Bobby Witt Jr. is the team’s star, but with Garcia’s keen eye at the plate, strong bat-to-ball skills and pristine defense at the hot corner, I expect a strong follow-up as the team’s co-star.
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