With just months to go until the 2026 FIFA World Cup gets under way, the shockwaves from the killing of El Mencho, the longtime head of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG), have left political leaders and security analysts contemplating not just repercussions but the possibility of an unofficial ceasefire between criminal syndicates and the state, at least through the tournament’s high-visibility window.
Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has insisted that “every guarantee” is in place for fans and teams traveling to the six World Cup host cities across Mexico, including Guadalajara, Monterrey, and Mexico City.
“There is no risk,” she said at a recent press conference, echoing continued assurances from FIFA officials.
But authorities have had to balance that optimism with an unvarnished reality: since the military’s deadly Feb. 22 operation that killed El Mencho, cartel fighters reportedly burned vehicles, set up roadblocks, and engaged security forces in multiple states, resulting in dozens of fatalities and widespread disruption.
The question on many minds, from policymakers to travel planners, is not whether the violence will subside entirely but whether cartels might consider a pragmatic truce as the World Cup approaches.
The uncertainty surrounding the violence
The deep uncertainty surrounding CJNG‘s leadership structure after El Mencho‘s death, particularly with his heir apparent, his son Rubén “El Menchito” Oseguera González, incarcerated in the United States, has raised questions among foreign and domestic security analysts about how cohesive the cartel will be in the coming months.
Former U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration chief Ray Donovan, now CEO of Stack21 Solutions, offered a clear example of that skepticism when he discussed the cartel’s prospects for negotiation with Mexican authorities.
Donovan, who once oversaw operations that culminated in the capture of Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán, told The Post that he believes a stable truce is unlikely at this stage.
“I’m not so convinced under Sheinbaum because I feel like Sheinbaum is very much focused on the rule of law,” Donovan said. “I think you have to have a really powerful figurehead [in the cartel] to be able to call the truce and right now there is no one particular person.”
Dr. Raul Benítez, a security expert, suggested that a temporary pause in violence might be strategically beneficial for the cartel, at least while the world is watching and Mexico prepares to host the tournament.
He told reporters that the CJNG might avoid continued overt attacks on highways and urban centers, reasoning that if they persist in high-profile violence, it could provoke an aggressive clampdown from authorities and jeopardize the country’s role as a host.
According to Benítez, by signaling calm around the World Cup period, effectively telling rival groups and security forces that “what’s needed right now is for the country to be calm, for the World Cup to happen”, the cartel could reduce pressure on itself and let other priorities resurface afterward.
This kind of calculation is not without precedent in other parts of the world. In El Salvador in the early 2010s, rival gang leaders agreed to pauses in violence with the government in exchange for concessions, reducing murder rates significantly for a period of months.
Those truces were controversial and complex, but they illustrate that negotiated calm, even if temporary, has been part of criminal state interactions before.
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