The 2025 NFL season kicks off with a high-stakes quarterback showdown: Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs face Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers in São Paulo, Brazil, on Friday, September 5.
For fantasy football managers, the question isn’t just who will win-but who to start between these two elite quarterbacks.
Entering his seventh season, Patrick Mahomes remains a fantasy staple.
Despite a slight shift in the Chiefs‘ offensive lineup, Mahomes is projected to deliver 22.1 fantasy points in Week 1, with 243 passing yards, nearly two touchdowns, one interception, and 19 rushing yards.
His ability to extend plays and the Chiefs‘ knack for scheming receivers open make him a reliable QB1 option.
Chargers‘ defensive coordinator Jesse Minter acknowledges the challenge Mahomes presents:
“Going against [No.] 15 on the other side, he’s going to extend plays,” said cornerback Tarheeb Still. “We’ve got to do our job.”
Historically, Mahomes has excelled in divisional matchups, further solidifying his status as a top-tier fantasy quarterback.
Herbert: The efficient contender
Justin Herbert enters his sixth season with the Chargers after a productive 2024 campaign, finishing just shy of 4,000 passing yards with 23 touchdowns and only three interceptions.
For Week 1, he’s projected for 19.5 fantasy points, with 229 passing yards, two touchdowns, one interception, and 14 rushing yards.
While Herbert‘s numbers are solid, they often reflect a steady, less explosive style compared to Mahomes.
Herbert‘s efficiency and ability to minimize mistakes make him a strong fantasy option, especially if Mahomes isn’t available.
However, in a head-to-head comparison, Mahomes‘s higher ceiling and proven consistency in big games give him the edge.
While both quarterbacks are talented and capable of leading their teams to victory, fantasy managers should lean towards starting Patrick Mahomes in Week 1.
His higher projection, combined with his ability to generate fantasy points through both passing and rushing, offers a more favorable risk-reward ratio.
Justin Herbert remains a strong option, particularly in leagues where Mahomes is unavailable, but Mahomes’ track record in high-profile games makes him the preferable choice to kick off the fantasy season.
Other decisions to make ahead of Friday’s game
Fantasy football managers are also grappling with a crucial lineup decision: start emerging talent Xavier Worthy or the reliable veteran Keenan Allen?
Both wide receivers play pivotal roles in high-powered offenses, but their projected impacts in Week 1 differ significantly.
Given the projections, Xavier Worthy presents a higher fantasy upside in Week 1.
His ability to make explosive plays and his increasing involvement in the Chiefs‘ offense make him an appealing option for fantasy managers seeking high-reward potential.
While Keenan Allen remains a dependable target, his lower projected output suggests a more conservative approach in fantasy lineups.
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