This year’s Kentucky Derby is one of the biggest dart throws in recent memory.
That’s probably not what you want to read in a preview story for a Triple Crown race, but it’s the hard truth. One glance at the oddsboard tells you everything you need to know, as there are five horses shorter than 10/1.
And, eight of the 20 are shorter than 15/1.
Giddy up.
As I’ve always said, I bet the horses but lean on my guys. Handicapper Colin Sheehan from Doubling Down drilled the Derby last year and “Uncle” Kirk Rockwell out of Gulfstream Park is as tapped in as anyone.
“Last year, you had elite horses like Sovereignty and Journalism,” Sheehan told FOX Sports. “This year, we have some standouts who have come off the trail. You can talk to 10 different handicappers and get 10 different answers.
“There’s a Tier A, and it’s wider than ever. I’d usually give you two or three horses in the past, but this year it could be seven or eight. Tier A to me is Renegade, Commandment, Danon Bourbon, So Happy, The Puma, Chief Wallabee, Emerging Market and Further Ado.
“That’s how wide-open it is.”
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Odds to win 2026 Kentucky Derby
1. Renegade 5/1
2. Albus 51/1
3. Intrepido 60/1
4. Litmus Test 38/1
5. Right To Party 30/1
6. Commandment 7/1
7. Danon Bourbon 14/1
8. So Happy 6/1
9. The Puma 7/1
10. Wonder Dean 20/1
11. Incredibolt 36/1
12. Chief Wallabee 13/1
13. Silent Tactic 20/1
14. Potente 26/1
15. Emerging Market 12/1
16. Pavlovian 50/1
17. Six Speed 45/1
18. Further Ado 6/1
19. Golden Tempo 43/1
20. Fulleffort 19/1
21. Great White 41/1
“Chief Wallabee is absolutely on my tickets,” Sheehan continued. “He was second in the Fountain of Youth, third in the Florida Derby and he’s only run three times. Now they’re adding blinkers. Blinkers for a horse are like eye cups. It makes the horse focus a little bit more.
“Usually, when you’re making equipment changes before the Kentucky Derby, that’s a big no-no. I think this is exactly what Chief Wallabee needs. They added the blinkers in his last workout at Churchill and he looked unbelievable.
“He’s who I’m starting my ticket with.”
Rockwell sent me a list of his five favorite horses on Tuesday. He circled Danon Bourbon, So Happy, The Puma, Potente and Emerging Market.
“Potente is [Bob] Baffert’s best horse,” Rockwell told FOX Sports. “He had an incredible workout this week and I expect him to be near the lead.
“I landed on So Happy to win. He’s a West Coast shipper and Santa Anita Derby champion. He’s won three of four lifetime starts and looked amazing the last couple weeks. Jockey Mike Smith knows how to win these races.
“I’m boxing 7-8-9-14-15.”
As I said, I handicap the handicappers and I absolutely love that Rockwell and Sheehan both really like the 15 horse, Emerging Market. Neither wise guy picked the 15 to win, but they’re playing him in exotics.
Also, Chris “The Bear” Fallica brought up an incredible stat on this week’s “Bear Bets” podcast about Emerging Market’s jockey Flavien Prat.
In eight career mounts at the Kentucky Derby, Prat has seven top-four finishes, a win, a runner-up and four thirds. He’s constantly directing good trips at Churchill Downs and putting his horses in position to do damage.
Hey now.
Here’s what I’m betting Saturday:
$40 each [15] Emerging Market to win, place, show
$40 two-dollar exacta box with 7-8-9-12-15
$25 [8] So Happy to win
$25 [12] Chief Wallabee to win
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