Beyond Patrick Mahomes and Saquon Barkley: Biggest X-factors for Chiefs, Eagles

Carmen Vitali

NFL Reporter

There are keys to every game. This one just happens to be the biggest game, as the Philadelphia Eagles aim to stop the Kansas City Chiefs from making history. There are the obvious key players, like Patrick Mahomes and Saquon Barkley. This isn’t that. Here are a few players who are perhaps under the radar that could have a major impact on Super Bowl LIX.

CHIEFS

Offense: LT Joe Thuney

On any given team, you could say that the left tackle is the second-most important position behind quarterback. Therefore, it seems like low-hanging fruit to name Patrick Mahomes’ left tackle as the X-factor for the Chiefs’ offense, and maybe a little off considering the mobility of Mahomes. But the thing is, Thuney isn’t a left tackle. He’s a guard, and together with center Creed Humphrey and right guard Trey Smith, he helped form arguably the best interior offensive line in the league. That has been enough to get Mahomes through with revolving doors at the tackle spots over the past few years.

Things finally got so dire this season due to injury that the Chiefs broke up the band, kicking Thuney out to tackle in Week 15. His pass-blocking grade has steadily improved since, going from a 43.5 mark to 68.2 in Week 17, according to PFF (he played just three snaps in Week 18 as the Chiefs rested their starters ahead of the postseason). He allowed zero sacks.

In the divisional round, Kansas City’s offensive line allowed three sacks, including one by Thuney. But the following week against the Bills in the AFC Championship Game, Thuney not only didn’t allow a sack, he didn’t surrender a hit, hurry or pressure. He’s faced some of the best on the outside already in the likes of Myles Garrett, T.J. Watt and Will Anderson and held up against all of them.

Thuney will need to be great again against a stifling Philadelphia defense if the Chiefs are going to complete this three-peat. To keep up with the Eagles’ potent offense, Mahomes will likely have to lead his unit to more points than it’s been scoring this season. The Chiefs averaged just 22.6 points per game in the regular season, ranking 15th in the NFL. Thuney is a key to unlocking that door for Mahomes.

Defense: LB Nick Bolton

It’s no secret that stopping the Eagles means, first and foremost, stopping Barkley. The thing is, very few teams have done it. Barkley has gone over 100 yards rushing in 14 regular-season games, two of which he topped 200 yards. It just happened in the divisional round against the Rams where Barkley rushed for 205 yards. He’s a mere 30 yards short of breaking the single-season rushing record (including postseason). He’ll get that barring injury, but Kansas City will need to limit him as much as possible to even begin slowing down Philly’s explosive offense.

What the Eagles have unlocked is the ability to make their offense multiple between Barkley and quarterback Jalen Hurts’ running ability, along with receivers like A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith (more on him in a second). To combat that, Kansas City needs a versatile player. Enter: Nick Bolton … and the rest of KC’s linebacker corps, really. Per Next Gen Stats, the Chiefs recorded the lowest missed tackle percentage (10.7%) in the league during the regular season. Their numbers against the run are even better with just an 8.6% missed tackle rate.

It’s resulted in a pretty formidable run defense, allowing opposing ball carriers 4.1 yards per carry against blocked boxes (defined as against as many or more blockers than there are defenders), according to NGS. That’s the fifth-best mark in the league. They have allowed -112 yards over expectation in those situations, which is good news for Kansas City considering how good Barkley is versus stacked boxes and how well his offensive line is at blocking for him. As the middle linebacker, Bolton will be orchestrating the attack, but it’ll take the entire front seven to keep the Eagles’ offense one-dimensional.

EAGLES

Offense: WR DeVonta Smith

You can defend Barkley and potentially Hurts’ own rushing ability. You can defend wide receiver A.J. Brown. You can contend with the Eagles’ offensive line. But you probably can’t do much more than that. That’s where Smith comes in. In an offense built around the run, Brown’s touches have been down this year, so you can imagine it’s meant the same for Smith. The latter caught 68 passes for 833 yards and seven touchdowns in the regular season. His 12.3 yards per reception is a career low. But that doesn’t mean Smith is a non-factor.

He could be the factor with Kansas City already having its hands full with the aforementioned parts of the offense. This is especially the case outside the numbers, where Smith has excelled. Including the postseason, 40 of Smith’s passes and 504 of his yards have come on the outside. His 111 receiving yards over expectation on such receptions is the sixth-most among receivers, per NGS. With players like Trent McDuffie likely occupied by Brown, Smith should be able to get advantageous matchups against the likes of Jaylen Watson.

Defense: FS Reed Blankenship

What’s the best way to beat the Chiefs? Keep Mahomes and the offense off the field. Philly has a formidable defense at all three levels, but Blankenship can really make his mark if he is able to take the ball away. He recorded four interceptions in the regular season, matching his previous career total. Against the Commanders in the NFC Championship Game, he recovered a fumble. He forced one in the wild-card round against the Packers, too.

The Chiefs lost the time-of-possession battle by more than four minutes just twice this season — and lost both games. Keeping them In both of the Chiefs’ losses this season, they lost time of possession and/or the turnover battle. They lost the turnover battle four times and went 3-1, but they had to rally in the fourth to win those three games. Paramount to beating the Chiefs is keeping Mahomes & Co. off the field.

Carmen Vitali is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. Carmen had previous stops with The Draft Network and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. She spent six seasons with the Bucs, including 2020, which added the title of Super Bowl Champion (and boat-parade participant) to her résumé. You can follow Carmen on Twitter at @CarmieV.

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