What if I told you back in August that Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson would all be watching the NFL playoffs from home?
Only four weeks remain in the regular season and, honestly, the situation laid out above isn’t too farfetched if you really think about it.
Burrow’s Bengals are dead and buried while Mahomes’ Chiefs and Jackson’s Ravens are literally underdogs to make the postseason. The Chiefs are as high as -800 to miss in the market.
If you knew then what you know now … what would’ve been the play?
“Oh, I would’ve emptied the clip on Buffalo,” one professional bettor told me from Las Vegas. “The only team that’s stopped Josh Allen is Kansas City. That’s the only one that matters. Mahomes is their kryptonite.”
And yet a path without all three is obviously easier.
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A Buffalo title bet before Week 1 ranged from +675 to +750 across the country. Trust me, I’ve got multiple slips already. And I’ve added more at better prices.
The Bills were 12/1 nine days ago at one sportsbook and I grabbed more.
My portfolio now has five bets from +725 to +1200.
The current Bills’ Super Bowl prices are +900 FanDuel ($100 wins $900), +860 Circa, +850 DraftKings, +850 Bet365, +850 Caesars, +802 Pinnacle, +800 South Point, +800 Westgate and +782 CRIS ($100 wins $782).
If you don’t believe in the Bills’ defense, I get it. That’s a valid concern. But every team in the AFC has a flaw. Denver and New England have young quarterbacks who have never won a playoff game. Jacksonville and Houston aren’t exactly rich with playoff success. Pittsburgh is meh. Los Angeles will be lucky to keep Justin Herbert upright with all its offensive line issues.
If the Bills bring their “A” game, they’ll be tough to slay.
I visit with “Schopp and the Bulldog” every Friday afternoon on WGR 550 in Buffalo and while the hosts might not share my over-the-top optimism — don’t blame ‘em — they understand how incredible their quarterback is at his best.
“The Bills wouldn’t be the Bills without Josh Allen,” Mike Schopp told me. “I can’t imagine the Bills going anywhere without their MVP. Allen is as important to the Bills’ chances as any player in the NFL is to his team’s.”
“He’s everything,” Bulldog Parker added. “Short and sweet. The entire operation continuing to be at contender status relies on him.”
How do Las Vegas sportsbooks view the Bills?
Well, Buffalo is favored to reach the Super Bowl at almost every shop. Westgate vice president of race and sports John Murray told FOX Sports a few weeks ago that the Bills were third in their power ratings.
Longtime oddsmaker Kenny White has never wavered on Buffalo, either. White shares his popular ratings with me every week and the only teams he has higher than the Bills at this moment are the Rams and Seahawks.
The best part about backing an AFC team is that you dodge a ton of powerful grenades on the other side of the bracket. You’ll only have to face one of Los Angeles, Seattle, Green Bay, Detroit and Philadelphia.
If you’re looking for a futures position, I highly recommend a Super Bowl bet on Buffalo at 9/1. They’re a good team with the best player in a wide-open AFC. And odds are very good Mahomes won’t be standing in the way.
It’s the Bills, what could go wrong?
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Watch him on FOX Sports’ Bear Bets and follow him on X @spshoot.
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