It’s still six months until the first World Cup match takes place, but interest in the 48-team international event got a spike from fans following Friday’s reveal of the draw.
Action on World Cup odds got a boost, too. In fact, some very early arrivers put bets on this event even before Friday’s release, most notably on the United States, which, along with Mexico and Canada, is hosting this massive soccer spectacle.
“We already have hazard on the U.S. lifting the trophy,” DraftKings director of sportsbook operations Johnny Avello said, alluding to World Cup futures odds. “The U.S. is already drawing money, and it’s just going to become a bigger liability as we continue.”
That said, in this case, said liability isn’t expected to come to fruition. Team USA is nowhere near the tournament favorites, led by Spain.
Avello offers up his insights on the group draw, futures and more in the 2026 World Cup odds market.
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Steady at the Top
What Friday’s draw didn’t reveal was a Group of Death, for the first-ever field of 48, as the tourney expands from 32 teams. Typically in the World Cup, there’s one group that’s particularly strong, creating a potentially perilous path to the knockout stage.
Avello said he doesn’t really see that this time. Therefore, World Cup championship futures odds didn’t adjust much after the draw.
Spain is the +450 favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, followed closely by England at +550. Rounding out the top five: France +750, Brazil +800 and 2022 World Cup champion Argentina +850.
“The draw didn’t really move the needle on the odds. Spain, England, France, Brazil, they’re all right there,” Avello said Friday afternoon, noting that World Cup betting in general got a modest jolt from the draw’s release.
“There’s a little push today. Out of the top teams, they’re betting England a little bit, and Germany. Colombia is getting a little bit of money at 50/1.”
It’ll be a slow trickle for the next few months. But make no mistake, by June, World Cup betting will be massive.
“We’ve already got money on every team. But we haven’t gotten to the serious betting yet,” Avello said. “This event will be the full focus come summer.”
Home Cooking
The U.S. men’s national team is in Group D, along with Australia and Paraguay. The fourth team will be decided in a four-way playoff among Turkey, Kosovo, Slovakia and Romania.
At the moment, Team USA is a +150 favorite to win the group and advance to the first knockout stage, in the Round of 32. And the Americans don’t even have to win Group D to advance — they just need to finish top two in the group, or among the eight best third-place teams.
Barring a meltdown, that’s almost a certainty.
USA is No. 14 in FIFA’s world rankings. In odds to win the tournament, the U.S. is the +8000 co-14th choice. That’s obviously well behind the top teams but indicates the Americans should at least be playing in the Round of 32.
DraftKings’ odds for Team USA just to advance are a hefty -575, meaning it would take a $575 bet to win $100. So oddsmakers fully expect the Red, White & Blue in the Round of 32.
The bigger question, though: Can the U.S. get to the much more competitive Round of 16?
Avello thinks it’s possible, and the American public betting masses will certainly be banking on it.
“I’m gonna say there’s a chance,” he said. “The U.S. has a team with a good coach [Mauricio Pochettino], they’re playing in front of home fans, and they’re gonna have high expectations. The betting excitement will be for the U.S. to play well.
“And if they can advance, then we know we’re going to have an abundance of bets on U.S. futures.”
Like Team USA, Mexico is also +8000 to win the Cup. El Tri is in Group A, along with South Africa, South Korea and likely Denmark, if it wins a playoff to gain entry. Mexico is the +130 favorite to win Group A.
Canada is the long shot of the three host countries, at +25000 (250/1) to win the tournament. The Canadians are in Group B with Switzerland, Qatar and likely Italy, if the Italians play their way in.
The Swiss are +175 favorites to win Group B, followed by Italy at +230 and Canada at +275.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on X: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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