2026 World Cup Group Scenarios: What Each Team Needs to Advance To Round of 32

The World Cup group stage can get complicated quickly.

With 48 teams participating for the first time ever, FIFA instituted new tiebreaker rules to determine the top two in each group along with the eight highest third-place finishers.

Below, FOX Sports Research has broken down what each team needs to advance, what results would send them through, and which scenarios could leave their fate hanging in the balance.

Here’s where every group stands heading into the next round of matches, and the simple scenarios for them to advance.

Below scenarios are through all games played on June 23.

GROUP A SCENARIOS

Mexico has won the group and will face a third-place team (from either Group C, E, F, H, or I) in the Round of 32 in Mexico City on June 30.
South Africa finished as runner-up in the group, and will play Canada on June 28 in Los Angeles.
South Korea finished third, and currently ranks fourth among the third-place teams.
Czechia has been eliminated from advancing.

Mexico celebrates after securing the top spot in Group in the win vs. South Korea.

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GROUP B SCENARIOS

Switzerland won the group and will play a third-place team (from either Group E, F, G, I, or J) in the Round of 32 in Vancouver on July 2.
Canada finished as runner-up in the group and will play South Africa on June 28 in Los Angeles.
Bosnia and Herzegovina finished third, and has already clinched a spot as one of the eight third-place teams.
Qatar has been eliminated from advancing.

GROUP C SCENARIOS

Brazil won the group and will play the runner-up of Group F on June 29 in Houston.
Morocco finished as runner-up of the group and will play the winner of Group F on June 29 in Monterrey.
Scotland finished in third, and currently ranks seventh among third-place teams.
Haiti has been eliminated from advancing.

GROUP D SCENARIOS

USA has already advanced and won the group, and will play a third-place team from Group B, E, F, I, or J in Santa Clara on July 1.
Australia will advance with a win or draw.
Paraguay will advance with a win.
Paraguay can advance with a draw in its final match, but it is not guaranteed.
Türkiye has been eliminated.

Folarin Balogoun of the U.S.

GROUP E SCENARIOS

Germany has won the group and will play a third-place team from Group A, B, C, D, or F at Boston Stadium on June 29.

Ivory Coast will advance with a win or draw.
Ecuador will advance with a win AND Ivory Coast loss, AND wins the tiebreaker with Curaçao.
Curaçao will advance with a win AND an Ecuador loss/draw.

GROUP F SCENARIOS

Netherlands will win the group with a win AND with a Japan loss/draw.
Netherlands will advance with a win/draw.
Japan wins the group with a win AND a Netherlands loss/draw.
Japan advances with a win/draw.
Sweden advances with a win.
Sweden will win the group with a win AND a Netherlands loss/draw.
Tunisia has been eliminated.

GROUP G SCENARIOS

Egypt will advance with a win/draw OR Belgium loss/draw.
Iran advances with a win OR a draw AND a Belgium draw, AND wins the tiebreaker with Belgium.
Belgium advances with a win OR a draw AND an Iran loss, OR a draw AND an Iran draw, AND wins tiebreaker with Iran.
New Zealand advances with a win AND an Iran loss/draw.

GROUP H SCENARIOS

Spain will advance with a win/draw OR a loss AND a Cape Verde loss/draw.
Uruguay advances with a win OR a draw AND a Cape Verde draw, AND wins tiebreaker with Cape Verde.
Cape Verde advances with a win OR a draw AND an Uruguay loss, OR a draw AND an Uruguay draw, and wins tiebreaker with Uruguay.
Saudi Arabia advances with a win AND an Uruguay loss/draw.

GROUP I SCENARIOS

France and Norway have advanced.
France will win the group with a win/draw.
Norway will win the group with a win.
Senegal will advance with a win, but it is not guaranteed.
Senegal is eliminated with a loss.
Iraq can advance with a win, but it is not guaranteed.
Iraq will be eliminated with a draw/loss.

GROUP J SCENARIOS

Argentina has won the group and will face the runner-up of Group H in Miami on July 3.

Austria will advance with a win or draw; in a draw, the runner-up will be decided by tiebreakers.
Algeria will advance with a win or draw; in a draw, the runner-up will be decided by tiebreakers.
Jordan has been eliminated.

Lionel Messi of Argentina.