The NFL is back, and in a few days from now, every team will have played a game.
Before the other 28 teams get into action, let’s take one final look at how the MVP odds stack up and figure out where the value is.
First, a little history to put in context and provide some clues as to who this award might go to.
It’s a quarterback award. Since 2008, there have been 18 winners and only running back Adrian Peterson, who nearly broke Walter Payton’s rushing record, won the award as a non-quarterback in 2011.
Inevitability, there will be a running back midseason who’s having a great year. Think Christian McCaffrey in 2023 and Saquon Barkley in 2024. And there will be people asking if this will be the year a running back once again wins MVP.
The answer is most likely no. Stick to quarterbacks when betting this market.
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While it is a quarterback award, it is also an individual award, since there is a major team component to winning MVP.
Nobody is winning this award on a 9-8 team.
Of the last 18 MVPs, 17 have been QBs, and 15 of those 17 played on a team that got a first-round bye in the playoffs. Peyton Manning in 2008 and Matthew Stafford in 2025 were the only two MVPs that did not get a bye in the playoffs, but even their teams went 12-4 and 12-5, respectively.
When this award is announced in February, the trophy will be handed to a quarterback on a team with an outstanding record.
Which brings me to Patrick Mahomes at 15-1 (FanDuel).
Patrick Mahomes is coming off an ACL tear suffered at the end of last season (Getty Images).
Sure, there are questions surrounding Mahomes as he returns from a torn ACL in a 2025 season that saw him and his team miss the playoffs for the first time in his illustrious career.
There are also questions about the offensive line and his receiving weapons.
Yet, this is still Mahomes, and at 15-1, the price is too tempting to pass up.
Just two years ago, he led his team to a 15-2 record and was one win away from a third consecutive Super Bowl title and the fourth in six years.
Mahomes has been to five Super Bowls, and he’s also lost at home in overtime in two other AFC title games.
Last year, the Chiefs went 6-11, but a lot of that poor record was due to them being just 1-9 in one-score games.
I expect Mahomes and the Chiefs to bounce back, have some better luck in close games and be right near the top of the AFC standings. What also helps Mahomes’ hopes for MVP is that he hasn’t won this award since 2022, so there is no voter fatigue with him winning.
There could also be a positive narrative surrounding him as he comes off the ACL injury.
Hill’s NFL MVP Pick: Patrick Mahomes +1500
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