If Ohio’s third-string quarterback didn’t take the Bobcats down the field for a touchdown in the final minute against South Alabama, we would’ve gone a perfect 5-0 last week.
Them’s the breaks sometimes.
We know you’re here for informed wagers and I assure you I vet everything through multiple handicappers, oddsmakers and betting buddies who know what they’re doing. Those that do well in this racket know the “how, what and why” and that’s always my goal.
Also, this will never be the place for a million picks or five-team parlays. These will always be the wagers I love the most and ones that I’m betting with my own money.
Let’s go to work.
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(2026 Record: 7-6-1, +0.4 units)
Talk about a tough spot for Clemson. The Tigers travel all the way across the country on a short week to face a feisty Cal squad with a very talented quarterback. Sophomore Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele (JKS for short) is an electric playmaker with a rocket arm and I think he’ll have a big day against the Clemson secondary. Give me the points.
Sammy P’s Pick: Cal +2.5
This one won’t be a beauty pageant. I might not even watch it. You’ve got two strong defensive lines and two really conservative head coaches.
Michigan head coach Kyle Whittingham could call a conservative game against Iowa. (Getty Images)
Don’t be surprised when one of these guys punts from the opponent’s 40 or kicks a field goal on 4th and 2. Also, Iowa always does a good job limiting mobile quarterbacks and I don’t expect that to change.
Sammy P’s Pick: Under 38.5 Points Scored
As retired Vegas bookmaker Ed Salmons told me earlier this week, “the line is telling you who’s going to cover this game.” It is interesting how the public didn’t want to bet Ole Miss last week at home, but now people are lining up to bet on them in The Swamp. This Gators defense is much improved and I know Jon Sumrall wasn’t happy with the team’s 16 penalties last week. Rather than lay three, I’m drinking juice on the moneyline.
Sammy P’s Pick: Florida Moneyline (-160)
This is Penn State’s first real test of the season. No offense to Marshall, Temple and Buffalo, but Wisconsin provides the toughest test in the trenches and the Badgers might have found something at quarterback with Old Dominion QB Colton Joseph. Wise guys historically love fading Matt Campbell as a double-digit favorite and those 10 points look extra enticing considering the total is only 44. A 7-0 Wisconsin start would be lovely.
Sammy P’s Pick: Wisconsin +10
Chargers @ Bills (-7.5)
You’ll probably hate this one, but I’m all over the Chargers here. After being a trendy offseason dark horse pick for the sixth straight year, Los Angeles lost its first two games as a touchdown favorite. And it’s been ugly. So there’s very little appetite to bet the Bolts. As somebody who hasn’t been burned yet, this underrated underdog role is perfect. Jim Harbaugh will empty the playbook and I think desperation works in our favor.
Sammy P’s Pick: Chargers +7.5
Vikings (-1.5) @ Buccaneers
Speaking of teams that are 0-2 SU and against the spread (ATS), meet the Buccaneers. Fresh off a loss to the lowly Cleveland Browns, the Bucs are now home underdogs against Minnesota.
Can Baker Mayfield be trusted? (Getty Images)
And naturally, the Vikings are super popular after beating the Bears last Sunday. I probably trust Baker Mayfield more than I should in this spot, but the Buccaneers have plenty of talent on the outside to circumvent all the blitzes Brian Flores will dial up.
Sammy P’s Pick: Buccaneers +1.5
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