The champion of the NBA’s Western Conference will be crowned in a seventh and deciding game on Saturday night, after the Spurs blew out the Thunder in Game 6 to even the series.
It’s no surprise that this much-anticipated series is tied at 3-3, but a close series doesn’t necessarily mean close games. Surprisingly, four of the six games so far have been fairly lopsided.
Since the Game 1 double-overtime thriller won by the Spurs, the margin of victory for the games since then has been 9, 15, 21, 13 and 27, respectively.
Are we due for a close game?
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Well, “due” is a dangerous word when it comes to betting.
And while many neutral fans will root for a competitive game, this has been a hard series to get a feel for, considering the wide range of outcomes from one game to the next. Also factored in are the injuries to key players for each squad.
However, one thing that has been a consistent theme in this series is this reminder: Do not overreact to the previous game.
Both teams have had games in this series where they have been blown out, only to rebound and win the following game, despite looking overmatched 48 hours prior.
From a player props perspective, Thunder guard Lu Dort seems to be falling out of favor with head coach Mark Daigneault. Dort was 2-for-11 shooting in Game 6 and had some abbreviated stints in his 18 minutes on the floor — perhaps a sign that his playing time could be slashed in a winner-take-all game. A wager on Dort to have fewer than 4.5 points (the Under) seems like sound logic, although it is a fairly low number for a player who is not afraid to shoot.
Ultimately, I’m going with the Thunder to win and advance to the NBA Finals once again.
These teams are very evenly matched, despite the recent string of blowouts. Home-court advantage and a small edge in depth are enough for me to go with the defending world champions, who I believe pull away at the end.
Throughout this series, backing the team that is coming off of an ugly loss has been the way to go, and I’ll take my chances with that approach in Game 7.
PICK: Oklahoma City Thunder (-3.5) to win by more than 3.5 points
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