Even though this 2026 Major League Baseball season is still young, the New York Yankees have been a roller coaster all year.
A sizzling start had them at 7-1 in early April with the best record in baseball. Then they promptly lost six out of their next seven games.
On May 8, the red-hot Yankees entered a series in Milwaukee with a 26-12 record, having won 16 out of 19 games. There, they got swept, the beginning of a 4-11 stretch that got them as far as 5.5 games behind the first-place Rays in the American League East.
However, in their last two games, the Yanks got a walk-off home run from Aaron Judge to break a 0-0 tie and beat Tampa Bay on Sunday, followed by a ninth-inning comeback on Monday to defeat the Royals.
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The Yankees are currently -140 to win the AL East, and as inconsistent as they have been in the first two months of the season, perhaps betting them now to win the division is the perfect time — especially considering their streakiness.
Former Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole returned Friday night after over a year-long absence, delivering six shutout innings and reaching 98 mph on the radar gun. Starting pitcher and former All-Star Carlos Rodon also returned to the rotation recently, joining AL Cy Young favorite Cam Schlittler.
Schlittler’s co-ace, Max Fried, is currently on the injured list but is expected to return at some point this season. The team the Yankees are chasing, the Rays, have been a great story and always seem to do more with less considering their low payroll and lack of resources.
But a couple of stats stand out and suggest the Rays might not be the team in first place once the fall rolls around.
Despite the outstanding record, they have only outscored opponents by a combined 38 runs, as opposed to the Yankees, who have outscored their opponents by 68 runs so far this year.
A big reason for the disparity between record and run differential is that the Rays have been exceptional in close games. The Rays have played nine, one-run games this year; they lost the first one to the Cardinals in their opening series but have since won each of the eight others.
Some might say Tampa Bay simply plays well in close games, but it’s also fair to suspect there has been some good fortune attached to that record.
With well over 100 games still to be played, and the Yankees only 3.5 games out of first place, a bet at -140 odds for the more talented Yankees to surpass the Rays and win the American League East is one I’m willing to make.
PICK: Yankees (-140) to win the AL East
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