The trophy will be in the building on Monday night in Indianapolis, and the storylines are great for this one, with the UConn Huskies looking for their third national title in four years.
Still, they’re coming into this game as the underdogs, despite all of their recent success as a program. That’s because they will take on a Michigan juggernaut that has obliterated everyone in its path.
After demolishing Arizona on Saturday night — where even the 18-point final margin of victory doesn’t do justice to how lopsided that game was — it’s hard to bet against the Wolverines.
But on the other hand, the Huskies have now covered an incomprehensible 18 out of their last 19 Tournament games and also won 18 of their last 19 Tournament matchups, while improving to 13-1 all-time in the Final Four as a program.
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Both sides have some injury concerns ahead of this one. UConn guard Solo Ball is dealing with a foot sprain that had him miss practice Sunday. Ball is going to play, and it should be noted that he finished Saturday’s game despite the injury and threw down an emphatic dunk late to help seal the victory.
Michigan star forward Yaxel Lendeborg will also play but limped off the court after an ankle injury in the win over Arizona. He maintained a noticeable limp, despite returning later in the game.
It’s scary to bet against the Wolverines right now, and their path to the title game reminds me of Indiana’s dominant run to the CFP championship, that culminated with a blowout of Oregon before eventually winning it all. But as scary as it is to bet against Michigan, the alternative is going against a coach that is 18-1 in his last 19 Tournament games.
This is what makes this game so fun.
Ultimately, I like UConn getting the 7 points. From a matchup standpoint, the Huskies are one of the best teams in the country at limiting transition opportunities, which is a must for slowing down this high-flying Michigan team.
The Huskies play at a slow pace and can implement a similar approach to how they beat Illinois, shooting a high volume of 3s. They were 12 of 33 from beyond the arc against Illinois and will need a similar number of attempts — and probably a couple more makes — if they’re going to pull off the upset.
UConn held Illinois to a season low of 61 points when the squads met in November. Then, on Saturday, the Huskies limited Illinois to just 62 points, a reflection of how prepared the UConn coaching staff is.
Michigan is the rightful favorite here, but UConn has the coach and the style to keep this game close. This would be the biggest upset in the title game since Duke lost in 1999 to — you guessed it — UConn.
In that game, the Blue Devils were 9.5-point favorites.
In what hopes to be a classic championship game, I’m taking the points with Dan Hurley and the Huskies, although I think they will fall short of pulling off an outright upset.
PICK: UConn (+7) to lose by fewer than 7 points or win outright
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