Wise guys steering clear of top-ranked Scottie Scheffler to win U.S. Open

Sam Panayotovich

FOX Sports Betting Analyst

Last year’s U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2 was high-quality theater, as Bryson DeChambeau and Rory McIlroy battled for glory down to the wire.

It was DeChambeau’s unforgettable shot out of the sand at 18 that set up a four-foot par putt to win the tournament. And he drilled it.

The bunker shot gets better every time you watch it.

This year’s U.S. Open shifts to legendary Oakmont Country Club in Plum, Pa., the first return trip since Dustin Johnson won the event in 2016.

Scottie Scheffler (+275) is the heavy favorite at BetMGM, followed by DeChambeau (+750), Jon Rahm (+1200), McIlroy (+1400), Ludvig Åberg (+2200), Xander Schauffele (+2200), Colin Morikawa (+2500), Joaquin Niemann (+3000), Shane Lowry (+3300) and Tommy Fleetwood (+3300).

“The U.S. Open at Oakmont is probably my favorite event in all of golf,” handicapper Geoff Fienberg told me.

“The Masters has the tradition, the history and the pageantry. But when this event is set at Oakmont, it is my 1A golf event of the year. Some consider it the hardest golf course in America, maybe one of the hardest in the world.

“It’s going to be an absolute test to not get blown up. You can’t make the quads and triples and must swallow the bogeys. The fight for par is everywhere. You’ve got to hit it long, straight and live in the fairways.”

It’ll take an all-around clinic to emerge victorious.

Fienberg bet the winning score Under 277.5 strokes at even money (+100) and believes one of the world’s best players will meet the moment.

Of the golfers priced 25-1 or less, he’s drawn to Rahm.

Scheffler is obviously the elephant in every U.S. Open betting conversation as the world’s No. 1 player, but most wise guys are steering clear of his miniscule outright prices and searching for value in other places.

That’s because the Scheffler appetite drives up the market on everyone else.

For context, Scheffler is in the -150 to -190 range for a top-five finish and as high as -390 for top 10. Meanwhile, you can find DeChambeau, the second favorite, at +190 for top five and as short as -105 to land inside the top 10.

Any Scheffler short will require poor putter work.

“Maybe he doesn’t bury all those 8-foot and 12-foot par putts like he did [at the Memorial Tournament],” Fienberg said. “Putting is more difficult at Oakmont because the greens are faster. And putting is the part of Scheffler’s game that at times can come into question.

“But nobody is going to be shocked if the best player in the world is making putts. It’s unlikely Scheffler gets caught up given his all-around game.”

My good friend Jeff Sherman, who operates the golf markets at the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, snagged Harris English outright at 150-1. That price is long gone, but I’m still eyeing the former Georgia Bulldog in exotics.

I do find myself on Team DeChambeau given his fit at these U.S. Open courses. It’s also difficult to ignore his results in five of the last six majors. He finished first, second, second, fifth and sixth with only one missed cut.

It all comes back to Bryson for me.

“You can envision a world in which DeChambeau’s home looks like Robert Kraft’s office,” Fienberg cracked. “But instead of Lombardi trophies, it’s just five U.S. Open trophies. That is very much in the range of outcomes.”

Well said, Geoff.

With this in mind, here’s what I’m on for the U.S. Open:

$100 B. DeChambeau Top 10 (-110)
$50 B. DeChambeau (+750)
$50 H. English Top 20 (+225)
$25 H. English first-round leader (+7000)

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and the BetMGM Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

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