The AFC playoff race is heating up sooner than expected, and Week 11 hasn’t even kicked off. At the top, the New England Patriots sit at 9-2, looking steady and confident as they control the conference. The Colts and Broncos, both 8-2, are keeping close enough to stay dangerous. Beneath them, the chase for Wild Card spots has turned into a full sprint, with the Chargers and Bills currently holding the best positions as things tighten up.
While the race intensifies for some, others have reached the point where the season effectively ends. ESPN’s Football Power Index lists the Browns, Jets and Titans at 0 percent playoff probability. It’s a harsh midseason reality, and it comes long before teams typically face mathematical elimination. Even outlets like ESPN, NFL Network and The Athletic have emphasized how early-season collapses often seal a team’s fate in today’s hyper-competitive league.
The Jets might be the most puzzling case. After starting 0-7, they finally showed life with back-to-back wins, something Aaron Glenn had yet to accomplish as head coach. Their Thursday performance against the Patriots wasn’t perfect, but it hinted at progress. Unfortunately, progress doesn’t erase a disastrous start, especially in a conference where the margin for error barely exists.
Quarterback Questions Now Define the Bottom of the AFC
In Tennessee, the situation has turned into a full reset. Brian Callahan was dismissed earlier in the season, and interim coach Mike McCoy has struggled, going 0-3 so far. With a 1-8 record, the Titans have shifted into evaluation mode. Rookie Cam Ward has posted 1,760 passing yards with five touchdowns and six interceptions across nine starts. His development is now the main storyline, replacing any playoff-oriented expectations.
Cleveland is facing a similar pivot. The Browns are trying to determine if Dillon Gabriel is a long-term solution at quarterback. If not, coaches may soon give Shedeur Sanders an extended look. As analysts at Sky Sports and ESPN have often pointed out, quarterback instability tends to derail even the most talented rosters.
Behind the three teams already at zero, several others hover on the edge of elimination. ESPN’s FPI puts the Raiders, Saints, Giants, Dolphins and Commanders at 0.6 percent or lower, essentially leaving them with only a sliver of mathematical hope.
Week 11 will bring more clarity. For some, the season’s biggest battles lie ahead. For the Browns, Jets and Titans, the road from here is about rebuilding, testing young talent and preparing for what comes after the losses finally stop counting.
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