For decades, going for it on fourth down was a predictable gamble in the NFL, a rare act of offensive desperation with limited success.
In 1994, NFL teams went for it 463 times and converted 48% of the time. In 2004, NFL teams went for it 456 times and converted 48% of the time. In 2014, NFL teams went for it 451 times and converted 46% of the time.
Fast-forward to last season, and fourth down has changed in so many ways.
In 2024, NFL teams went for it 766 times and converted 57% of the time.
On a per-game basis, teams went for it on fourth down 60% more last year than they did a decade before, and converted on fourth down at the highest rate in at least 34 years. They’re doing it earlier in games, when they need more yards to move the chains, trying to keep frustrated defenses on the field and extend drives in situations where they had long conceded a punt and gave the ball to their opponents.
“Fourth down is something DQ [Dan Quinn] has been aggressive with all season,” Washington Commanders receiver Terry McLaurin said after a playoff win in Tampa last season. “For a good part of the season, we were 100 percent conversions. We know if it’s fourth and manageable, DQ’s going to give us a chance to execute. When we needed to make the play the most, we did, and that gives us confidence going forward.”
What’s more, the trend is likely to continue, as many of the league’s best quarterbacks on fourth downs last year were rookies. Washington’s Jayden Daniels went 15-for-17 converting on fourth-down plays in the regular season, an 88% clip, with eight conversions on nine carries and 8-for-8 completions passing, good for seven conversions. His lone miss there was an 8-yard gain on fourth-and-9.
Jayden Daniels and the Commanders used fourth-down plays to their advantage in their surprise run to the NFC Championship Game. (Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images)
He wasn’t the only rookie busy on fourth downs. Chicago’s Caleb Williams had the equivalent of an entire game of fourth-down plays — 19-for-27 for 227 yards (the most in an NFL season in the past decade) with two touchdowns and one interception. Four of the league’s top seven fourth-down quarterbacks by passer rating were rookies last year — Daniels, Atlanta’s Michael Penix Jr., New England’s Drake Maye and Denver’s Bo Nix combined to go 25-for-31 for 318 yards, with five touchdowns and no interceptions.
With greater confidence in the offense being able to move the chains and with kickers converting field goals from longer and longer distances, the window where punting is the accepted norm has changed. This past season, there were just 15 punts from inside the opposing 40-yard line, which seems normal: Who punts so close to the end zone? But in 1994, 30 years ago, there were 93 such punts, more than six times as many and in fewer games.
Teams are also going for it on their own side of the field, where failure might set their opponent up in field-goal range to start a drive. Take away end-game situations where it’s all but required to go for it, and such plays barely existed 30 years ago. In 1994, there were nine total fourth-down offensive plays inside a team’s own 40 before the fourth quarter; in 2024, there were 67.
Bears QB Caleb Williams last season had the most fourth-down passing yards in the NFL in the past decade. (Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images)
Another way to quantify how much more often teams go for it is to look at fourth-and-1 plays, now seen as a modest risk most coaches will take unless they’re deep in their own territory. In 2014, NFL teams went for it on fourth-and-1 42% of the time overall, despite having a solid 65% conversion rate on those plays. In 2024, teams went for it on fourth-and-1 71% of the time, converting for a first down by the same 71% margin.
It’s even less of a question now in “plus territory” — across midfield on the opponent’s side of the field, where even a stop on fourth down gives your defense a long field on which to stop an opposing drive. In plus territory, NFL teams went for it on fourth-and-1 70% of the time in 2014 and converted 64% of those; in 2024, those numbers were up to 88% of the time and converting 72%. In either scenario, the willingness to go for it has gone up substantially more than the corresponding success rate on those attempts. And punting in plus territory on fourth-and-1? That has nearly disappeared, going from 14 such punts in 2014 to just three total last season.
In the playoffs, with entire seasons hanging in the balance, NFL teams were even bolder on fourth downs. The Commanders, who had the NFL’s best fourth-down success rate in the regular season, went for it 15 times in three playoff games. Just 10 years ago, the league had 19 total fourth-down attempts over 11 playoff games. The Bills went 7-for-9 on fourth down in the playoffs, scoring three touchdowns on fourth downs. Five years earlier, there were zero fourth-down touchdowns in the entire 2019 NFL playoffs.
One of the biggest plays of the 2024 AFC Championship Game was the Chiefs’ fourth-down stop of the Bills’ tush push in the fourth quarter. (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
The net result of this change in fourth-down mentality makes for a more entertaining product. A decade ago, there were 9.32 punts per game, but last season, that number was 7.52, a drop of 19%. The NFL essentially took 300-plus punts a year — often a non-play like a touchback or a fair catch — and replaced them with high-leverage fourth down moments.
In other words, they’re going for it.
Greg Auman is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He previously spent a decade covering the Buccaneers for the Tampa Bay Times and The Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter at @gregauman.
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