Where the Dallas Mavericks’ longshot odds ranks in NBA lottery history

The Dallas Mavericks have secured the No. 1 pick for the 2025 NBA Draft after entering Monday’s lottery with just a 1.8% chance. 

The Mavs – who will have the top pick for the first time in franchise history – are now expected to select standout prospect Cooper Flagg on June 25, capping off a wild season in which Dallas traded five-team All-NBA star Luka Doncic in February to the Los Angeles Lakers. 

It’s a seemingly improbable turn of events considering that the Mavs had the 11th lowest odds going into Monday and three teams — the Charlotte Hornets, Washington Wizards, and Utah Jazz — each had a 14% chance at getting the top selection.

The Mavs’ 1.8% odds will now go down as the fourth-lowest for obtaining the top pick since the lottery was implemented in 1985. In a fateful twist, the Chicago Bulls had a 1.7% shot at this year’s top pick, the same odds that landed them future MVP Derrick Rose back in 2008.

Here is a full rundown of the biggest jumps to No. 1 in NBA Draft lottery history:

5. 2011 Cleveland Cavaliers

• Best odds: Minnesota Timberwolves (25%)
• Their odds: 2.8% (via Clippers)
• No. 1 pick: Kyrie Irving

4. 2025 Dallas Mavericks

• Best odds: Utah Jazz, Washington Wizards, Charlotte Hornets (14%)
• Their odds: 1.8%
• No. 1 pick: TBD

T2. 2008 Chicago Bulls

• Best odds: Miami Heat (25%)
• Their odds: 1.7%
• No. 1 pick: Derrick Rose

T2. 2014 Cleveland Cavaliers

• Best odds: Milwaukee Bucks (25%)
• Their odds: 1.7%
• No. 1 pick: Andrew Wiggins

1. 1993 Orlando Magic

• Best odds: Dallas Mavericks (16.67%)
• Their odds: 1.5%
• No. 1 pick: Chris Webber

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