The NBA is entering its final week of the season with the series tied 2-2, and it’s heading back to Oklahoma. Now, it’s a best-of-three series, and Game 5 is huge. History shows that winning this game gives a team a 74.2% chance of becoming champion in a tied 2-2 Finals series. The last two teams to pull off this win were the 2022 Warriors, who won Game 5 at home and finished the series in Boston in Game 6, and the 2021 Bucks, who won Game 5 on the road and sealed the deal at home in both finals their star players Stephen Curry (34 points) for the Warriors and Giannis Antetokounmpo (50 points) for the Bucks showing up.
Neither Pacers and Thunder have won two games in a row, and they’ve both had similar records at home and on the road. In the two road wins (Game 1 and Game 4), the home teams were in control for most of the game until the final quarter. The Pacers won Game 1 with a great shot from Tyrese Haliburton, and the Thunder won Game 4 thanks to MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who scored 15 of OKC’s final 16 points to seal the comeback.
This year’s Finals also show off the team’s strong bench depth. For the first time in 12 years, we’ve got at least 17 players averaging 12+ minutes per game. This goes to show that anyone on the bench can step up and make a difference – take notes, Obi Toppin and Alex Caruso.
The Crucial Game 5: Pacers’ Road Challenge
The Pacers might have gained a big edge if it weren’t for SGA’s great fourth quarter, but now they need to win one of their two remaining road games. What’s their secret? The Pacers haven’t lost back-to-back games since dropping three in a row during the regular season from March 6 to March 10. For Game 5, the Thunder are favored to win by 9 points, but the 2025 Playoffs and these Finals have shown that no lead is safe and you can never count out the Pacers.
These playoffs have had 10 games with comebacks of 15 points or more, including five by Indiana and one by the Thunder. Also, three of the four Finals games have seen the team that was behind make a comeback in the fourth quarter to win-Indiana in Games 1 and 3, and OKC in the most recent game.
Youth and Pace: The 2025 Finals Identity
Youth is a big deal in this matchup, as it’s the second-youngest Finals matchup in the last 70 years. These teams have been moving fast, and their pace in the Finals is the second-fastest since 1997, when Michael Jordan led the Bulls to victory over John “Assist King” Stockton’s Jazz.
Game 6 is set for Thursday in Indiana. If the Thunder win Game 5, the Pacers will be under pressure but they’ll have the advantage of playing on their home court. If the Pacers win today, the Thunder would have to pull off a rare road victory to force a Game 7-something that hasn’t happened in the NBA since the Cavaliers overcame a 1-3 deficit against the Warriors.
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