The path to a historic three-peat: 5 keys to a Chiefs victory in Super Bowl LIX

The NFL’s first-ever three-peat is in sight for the Chiefs, but the Eagles stand in their way.

The teams face off Sunday in Super Bowl LIX from New Orleans’ Caesars Superdome, a rematch of Super Bowl LVII two years ago.

[Prep for the epic Eagles-Chiefs matchup on FOX Sports’ Super Bowl LIX hub]

Here are five keys to victory for Kansas City to win its third straight Lombardi Trophy:

Disguise coverage shells

Jalen Hurts has taken 39 sacks that came four-plus seconds after the snap this year (regular season and playoffs), tied for the third-most in the NFL, according to Next Gen Stats — and he’s held the ball for that long on nearly 20% of his dropbacks, the highest rate in the league. In the NFC Championship Game, he was 0-for-5 on extended dropbacks.

Long story short, Hurts has shown indecisiveness when he has held the ball past his second read, so changing his post-snap picture could be advantageous for Kansas City.

The Chiefs rotated their safeties after the snap just 36.9% of the time during the regular season, but that’s up to 45.8% through two playoff games, including a season-high 55.6% in the AFC Championship. A similarly high rate could cause issues for Hurts and an Eagles passing attack that struggled in 2024.

Across their three matchups against Hurts since 2021, the Chiefs have disguised their coverage shells on 41.0% of dropbacks, the highest rate among any of the opposing quarterbacks they’ve faced multiple times, per NGS.

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Implement a heavy dose of blitzing (to the right)

Hurts is a heavily blitzed quarterback in general, but he’s proven to be particularly vulnerable when it’s coming from his right. This season, he averaged 2.3 fewer yards per attempt from an off-ball blitzer from the right (6.1) vs. a blitz from anywhere else (8.4), per Next Gen Stats.

In his three matchups against Hurts, Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has sent an off-the-ball blitzer from the offense’s right side at an 18.3% rate, compared to 12.3% against all other quarterbacks in that time span, according to NGS.

Hurts has been sacked on 12.1% of opposing blitzes, the second-highest rate in the NFL.

Win the red-zone battle

The Eagles’ goal-line offense can be borderline unstoppable, with the tush push and the threat of Saquon Barkley in their pocket. But they’re not as scary in the high red zone.

Overall, Philadelphia’s red-zone offense (in terms of touchdown rate) ranked 12th in the regular season. On the flip side, Kansas City’s defense ranked eighth inside the 20. It’s an area of the field where the Chiefs could potentially take advantage of an Eagles offensive line that is a bit banged up, with left guard Landon Dickerson (knee) and center Cam Jurgens (back) expected to play through injuries.

Channel Mahomes’ greatness against an elite secondary

The Eagles had the NFL’s No. 1 pass defense in 2024, but history says that doesn’t matter to Patrick Mahomes.

He’s 3-0 in his playoff career against teams with the top-ranked pass defense in the regular season, including Super Bowl LIV against the 49ers and Super Bowl LVII against the Eagles, according to Next Gen Stats.

His success in the passing attack will be paramount on Sunday, as Kansas City doesn’t have the personnel on paper to dominate in the run game, particularly against a great rushing defense like Philadelphia’s. The Chiefs ranked 22nd in rushing offense and the Eagles ranked 10th in rushing defense.

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Find explosive play success

Unlike the Chiefs of earlier in the Mahomes era, explosive plays have been harder to come by for Kansas City this season. The Chiefs had the second-worst explosive play rate in the NFL in 2024 (10.6%), per NGS.

But they have found more success in the postseason, registering a 16.0% explosive play rate in the divisional round and 17.5% in the AFC Championship, their highest marks since Week 1. That trend continuing against the Eagles would certainly help their bid for a three-peat.

But it won’t be easy.

Philadelphia allowed the lowest explosive play rate in the regular season at 10.7%. That success has continued in the playoffs, where the Eagles have allowed just 11.6% since the wild-card round.

Ben Arthur is an NFL reporter for FOX Sports. He previously worked for The Tennessean/USA TODAY Network, where he was the Titans beat writer for a year and a half. He covered the Seattle Seahawks for SeattlePI.com for three seasons (2018-20) prior to moving to Tennessee. You can follow Ben on Twitter at @benyarthur.

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