Scottie Scheffler begins the 2026 Open Championship as the betting favorite, but at least one leading golf expert believes Matt Fitzpatrick can deliver an English victory at Royal Birkdale.
Scheffler was priced at +750 by FanDuel shortly before the opening round, according to CBS Sports, with Rory McIlroy his closest rival at +950. ESPN also identified the defending champion and McIlroy as the two leading names in the market.
Scheffler is attempting to become the first player since Padraig Harrington in 2008 to win consecutive Open titles. However, his missed cut at the Scottish Open has introduced some uncertainty before the final men’s major of the year.
Who is the expert pick to win The Open?
CBS Sports golf writer Patrick McDonald has selected Fitzpatrick at odds of 18/1 to win the Claret Jug.
“Seems too good to be true, but I am riding with an Englishman who is in top form,” McDonald wrote.
Fitzpatrick arrives at Royal Birkdale following three victories during an outstanding 2026 season. His game also appears well-suited to a firm links course, with the Englishman leading the PGA Tour in strokes gained on approach and strokes gained around the green.
McDonald believes that combination gives Fitzpatrick the control and creativity required to survive the unpredictable conditions in Southport.
“His game is in good order, and so is his mental state; he appears relaxed and ready for the challenge ahead,” McDonald added. “That feels like a nice recipe.”
The main threats to Fitzpatrick
McIlroy remains a serious contender after producing three impressive rounds at the Scottish Open, despite one difficult stretch preventing him from winning the tournament.
Tommy Fleetwood is another popular home selection and was priced around +1500 alongside Fitzpatrick. The Southport native will have enormous support, although the pressure of competing near his hometown could become another challenge.
Jon Rahm, Xander Schauffele, and Robert MacIntyre are also positioned prominently in the market, while CBS Sports’ Robby Kalland has made Sam Burns his more adventurous winner selection at 50/1.
Scheffler remains the safest choice based on the betting odds, but Fitzpatrick represents the standout expert pick. His current form, accurate iron play, and confidence have created a genuine belief that England’s long wait for another Open champion on home soil could finally end.
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