The Draft Lottery is one of the NBA’s longest-running traditions. Although it’s been around in its current format for 30 years, the lottery is still the subject of rumors and accusations, like the one an internet sleuth recently launched, claiming it’s rigged.
The current format, featuring odds, ping-pong balls, unique numbers, and 14 teams with a chance of landing the number one pick in the next draft, dates back to 1985. The most recent edition was held on Monday, May 12, and the Dallas Mavericks earned the top pick despite having only a 1.8% chance of doing so.
It’s worth noting that the Mavs are only the fourth team in the history of this format to secure the top pick with odds of less than 2%. The coincidence-or Dallas’s tremendous luck-sent conspiracy theorists into a frenzy, though one proposed a theory that made sense to more than a few.
The NBA Draft Lottery is rigged
Following Monday’s lottery, the X (formerly Twitter) profile @Mavs_FFL, which claims to be the largest Mavericks fan account on the platform, assures it discovered the pattern followed by first-round draft lottery assignments.
@Mavs_FFL explained that after a blockbuster deal, the team that traded away the most prominent player receives the first pick in the next draft. For example, the New Orleans Hornets sent Chris Paul to the Los Angeles Clippers in 2011 and received the first pick in the 2012 draft, selecting Anthony Davis.
The Hornets traded Davis to the Los Angeles Lakers in 2019 and received the first pick in that same year’s draft, with which they called up Zion Williamson. Just a few months ago, Dallas traded Luka Doncic to the Lakers-in exchange for Davis-and received the first pick in 2025, with which they will likely call up Cooper Flagg.
Is the NBA Draft Lottery rigged?
The lottery aims to prevent the infamous “tanking”-where a team purposefully loses its final games to secure the first pick in the next draft-and it seems to have worked so far. If a team with a 1.8% chance can take the coveted position, it doesn’t make sense to lose on purpose.
On the other hand, and this is something the @Mavs_FFL theory doesn’t seem to be taking into account, Anthony Davis has been involved in every single one of those trades labeled “suspicious.” Coincidence? Probably. Will the world continue on despite everything? That’s for sure.
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