The Kansas City Chiefs are navigating unfamiliar ground as the 2026 NFL Draft picture begins to crystallize.
For a franchise accustomed to drafting at the back end of the first round, Kansas City now finds itself staring at a potential top ten selection, a reflection of a season that has gone sharply off script.
According to draft positioning projections from analytics sites, Kansas City has only about a 10 percent chance of finishing with a top-10 pick.
Its most likely landing spot, if the season ended today, would be in the early to mid-teens, including pick Nos. 13 or 14, with a slim shot at No. 9 or better.
Entering the final stretch, Kansas City sits at 6-9, a record that underscores how dramatically the year has unraveled after multiple seasons of sustained success. It is a jarring contrast for a team that has routinely played deep into January, if not February.
Kansas City hasn’t held a top-10 draft choice since 2013, the year before selecting Mahomes himself at No. 10 overall in 2017, and franchise brass and fans alike are grappling with what a rare opportunity like that could mean for the team’s future.
This time, however, the cost was not draft capital but the fallout of a disappointing campaign marked by inconsistency, injuries, and defensive regression.
As things stand, the Chiefs would actually pick No. 12 due to strength of schedule tiebreakers. Draft order is determined first by record, then by the combined winning percentage of opponents faced.
Strength of schedule could decide Kansas City’s draft fate
The volatility of the final two weeks ensures that nothing is settled yet. Washington, New Orleans, and Cincinnati all remain factors, while Dallas lurks just behind Kansas City at No. 13 with a 6-8-1 mark.
Games on Christmas Day loom especially large. Washington hosts Dallas earlier in the day, followed by Kansas City welcoming Denver that night. A Chiefs win would hurt their draft position, potentially dropping them closer to the middle of the first round, a familiar but now ironic outcome.
Meanwhile, Detroit‘s positioning adds another wrinkle. The Lions are 8-7 but have played one of the league’s softer schedules, giving them an advantage in any tiebreaker scenario with Kansas City.
League analysts at ESPN and Pro Football Focus have noted how unusual it is to see two recent Super Bowl contenders possibly drafting in the middle of the round rather than at the bottom.
Detroit and Kansas City, both built to win now, are suddenly forced to weigh short-term pride against long-term roster construction.
Atlanta further complicates matters. While the Rams technically own the Falcons‘ first-round pick due to a prior trade, Atlanta‘s final record will still dictate where that selection falls.
The Falcons host the Rams this week before closing the season against New Orleans, games that could indirectly shape Kansas City’s draft future.
For the Chiefs, the final weeks are about more than wins and losses. They represent a rare opportunity to add premium talent without surrendering assets, something that could accelerate a reset rather than delay it.
Whether Kansas City embraces that opportunity or slides back into familiar draft territory will be decided soon.
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