Don’t count me as someone who thought I’d be putting Trevor Lawrence and Bo Nix into the top 10 of a quarterback rankings just one month before the playoffs. But that’s what I’ve done. And really, that’s because — over the past few weeks — their quality of play has been undeniable. That’s what they’ve done.
There were several reasons to doubt Lawrence and Nix coming into the 2025 season. There were even more reasons after the first four games, when the Jacksonville QB’s inconsistency was compounded by receiver drops and the Denver QB’s decision-making issues led to four interceptions in the first four weeks.
But both quarterbacks have ascended since then. For Nix, he clearly enjoyed the best game of his career last week — his first four-touchdown game, without a sack or an interception against the Green Bay Packers. Lawrence had his best performance in years in Week 15 — six total touchdowns, five passing and one rushing, against the New York Jets.
It’s hard to say whether they can keep this up. We simply haven’t seen a large enough sample size to predict whether their newfound peak performance is, in fact, a new plateau. If so, then these two QBs are on the verge of announcing themselves as elite signal-callers.
Liam Coen celebrates with Trevor Lawrence during the QB’s six-touchdown outing against the Jets in Week 15. (Photo by Logan Bowles/Getty Images)
It’s entirely unsurprising that first-year Jaguars coach Liam Coen effusively praised Lawrence on Sunday.
“I thought he was very accurate with the football, started hot, allowing these guys to be able to catch and run, especially over the middle of the field,” Coen said. “The vertical throws were very impressive. Six total touchdowns, scrambling, very proud of Trevor and his preparation, the way that he’s practiced, the way that he’s continued to lead our offense and do what we’re asking him to do. … He’s playing at a high level right now.”
And it’s equally unsurprising that Broncos coach Sean Payton showed love for Nix.
“The thing about Bo is, he loves playing and so that’s contagious,” Payton said after the win over Green Bay. “And that’s a really good trait for a player at his position, and his teammates feel that. … [Nix] smiling even when we’re down. I mean, there’s just a competitive nature about him that’s refreshing.”
On Sunday, Lawrence and Nix will meet for the first time when the 12-2 Broncos host the 10-4 Jaguars in an AFC heavyweight battle (4:05 p.m. ET on FOX).
In many ways, their teams are built similarly. Both have top-10 defenses in terms of points allowed and yards allowed. They each have an elite pass-rusher: Denver’s Nik Bonitto and Jacksonville’s Josh Hines-Allen. Both teams have solid offensive lines and an elite cast of receivers. And both have offensive-minded coaches who are absolutely cooking in developing a passing offense that sets up their quarterbacks for success.
For all the teams’ similarities, the paths their quarterbacks took to get to this point are quite different.
For years, it has felt like Lawrence read too deeply into the league-wide pre-draft assessment of his skills. Back in 2021, here’s what NFL.com’s Lance Zuerlein wrote about Lawrence: “Refined and polished for his age, Lawrence is the ultimate prototype for today’s brand of franchise quarterback.”
Lawrence was the next Andrew Luck, who was the next Peyton Manning. In other words, Lawrence was a can’t-miss selection, destined to forever change the Jaguars’ franchise. It started off well, given that Lawrence delivered a playoff win in 2023. But as recently as this year, his film looked too much like the kid he was in 2021. It served as a reminder that even elite prospects aren’t immediately elite NFL quarterbacks. They need immense time and development — which requires tremendous work from the player and the franchise.
Why couldn’t Lawrence seem to progress? It’s hard to know with certainty, but it probably came down to his process. Tom Brady has said it many times: When quarterbacks are inconsistent on Sunday, it stems from inconsistent processes on the six days that lead into Sunday.
“Everyone wants to win, but what are the habits and the daily habits and the actionable things you need to do every day to put your team in a position to win?” Brady told Joel Klatt this past summer on “Big Noon Conversations.” “Patrick Mahomes is the one that does that the most often. Obviously, his physical talent, how he understands what he needs to do offensively. And he brings a consistent winning attitude to work every single day.
“In the biggest moments, you can depend on him the most. That’s clear. There’s other guys that are still developing, and they need to prove it before, in my mind, I can say, ‘He’s done it.'”
For the first time in a long time, Lawrence is making massive strides — which is really saying something for a consistently inconsistent quarterback. And that’s no doubt thanks to Coen, whose teaching and preparation appear to be reaching Lawrence at a higher level than the Jaguars’ previous coaches did.
On the flip side for Denver, the only consistent thing about Nix has been his steady growth. Remember, this was the kid who was appallingly bad in his first two NFL games last season. And at that point, Nix’s doubters (of which there were many) did victory laps and offered told-you-sos about the prospect’s immediate flop. Nix had a Round 2 grade from NFL.com, but went 12th overall. When he had four interceptions and no touchdowns after two games, Payton needed to break out the fire extinguisher to tamp down the molten hot takes.
Sean Payton has stuck with his hand-picked quarterback, and Bo Nix is rewarding the Broncos coach for his faith and patience. (Photo by Justin Edmonds/Getty Images)
But Nix finished his rookie season with 29 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. So far this year, he has 23 touchdowns and nine interceptions. He also has five fourth-quarter comebacks — helping his team to 11 straight wins and the No. 1 seed in the AFC. His performance against the Packers in Week 15 showed a side of Nix that I didn’t know existed.
Even with different arcs to their careers, Lawrence and Nix are enjoying a breakthrough moment. So it’s fitting they should get to share this major litmus test — against one another — on Sunday.
Before joining FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.
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