As we approach Super Bowl 60 at the open-air Levi’s Stadium in San Francisco on February 8th, the NFL is leaning into a rare weather-heavy narrative. For the first time since 2002, every single game in this postseason will have been played outside, stripping away the comfort of domes and placing the emphasis on grit and field conditions. Both the Seattle Seahawks and the New England Patriots navigated two home games in the elements to set up this highly anticipated rematch of Super Bowl 49.
While that game is forever etched in history for Malcolm Butler’s goal-line interception, a moment where everyone outside of New England still believes Pete Carroll should have handed the ball to Marshawn Lynch, history is now looking to repeat itself in a different way.
Why History Favors the Original Victor in New England vs. Seattle
Super Bowl 60 marks the 10th time in NFL history that two franchises have met again on the grandest stage. This will be the Seahawks’ first rematch, which would have also been a rematch of Super Bowl 50 even if it had been against the Broncos. While the Patriots are veterans of the “run it back” scenario.
This is New England’s fourth Super Bowl rematch: they swept the Rams (2001, 2018), were swept by Eli Manning’s Giants (2007, 2011), and split their two meetings with the Eagles (2004, 2017).
If you’re a fan of historical trends, the numbers lean heavily toward the Patriots. In the previous nine Super Bowl rematches, the team that won the first encounter has gone on to win the second one six out of nine times. Only three times has a team managed to pull off a “split” and get their revenge, most recently the Eagles against the Chiefs last season.
For the Patriots, a win would break their current tie with the Steelers for the most Super Bowl titles in NFL history (6), making them the undisputed kings of the Lombardi Trophy.
Can the Seahawks Overcome the Patriots’ Postseason Aura?
On paper, the sportsbooks have installed the Seahawks as the favorites to lift the trophy in San Francisco. Their roster depth and defensive consistency have been the talk of the league all season. However, the game isn’t played in a spreadsheet, and the Patriots bring a level of championship pedigree that is unmatched.
New England has played in more Super Bowls than any other franchise (11), and they have a uncanny knack for thriving as the “road” team or the underdog in neutral-site environments.The Seahawks might have the better odds, but the Patriots have the institutional memory of how to win these rematches.
With the “6-3” historical advantage for original winners looming over the matchup, Seattle will need more than just a revenge narrative to overcome the ghost of Super Bowl 49.
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