Geoff Schwartz
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
Super Bowl LIX on FOX between Kansas City and Philadelphia is here.
Until proven otherwise, I will take the Chiefs to win a playoff game.
The Chiefs have not lost a postseason contest in almost three seasons, as they look to be the first NFL team to win three straight Super Bowls. They do not have the better roster, but they continue to make the biggest plays in the brightest moments.
That is something that is difficult to quantify with numbers — unless, of course, you count Patrick Mahomes having the ball down three points under five minutes left and never losing a playoff game.
Every other quarterback is .500 in those moments.
Whether it is Mahomes in those moments or the defense hitting the right pressure, the Chiefs always win the must-have plays in these critical situations.
K.C. is the rarest team in the NFL. You cannot use its regular-season efficiency numbers to predict anything in the postseason, but the league is not supposed to work that way. It’s not set up to be a league where you turn it on for the postseason.
However, the Chiefs are back in this game after scoring over 30 points for the first time this season in the AFC title game. This is another example of how their regular-season performance does not mean much, and we have many years of evidence to know this team will play its best on Sunday.
It’s also worth having a discussion about overvaluing the Eagles’ results from their three playoff games.
They beat the No. 7 seed after being gifted a turnover on the first play of the game. They beat a West-Coast dome team in the snow by less than a touchdown, with that team driving to take the lead late in the game. And two weekends ago, the Eagles beat an overmatched No. 6 seed with a rookie quarterback.
They have not been challenged like the Chiefs in the postseason.
When it’s the fourth quarter and this game is close, which moneyline ticket do you want in your pocket? I want the Chiefs.
Even if the Eagles do win this game — which they can because they are a fantastic team — I can live with being on the Chiefs.
PICK: Chiefs Moneyline
Kansas City Chiefs offense or Philadelphia Eagles defense: Which will decide the Super Bowl?
My second wager is on the second half being the highest scoring.
In the Chiefs’ three Super Bowl wins, the second halves have produced more points than the first halves.
They racked up 31 points in the second half against the 49ers in 2019, 44 points in the second half against the Eagles in the matchup two years ago and then 34 points in the second half (plus overtime) in their win last season.
It’s easy to see why this tends to happen in these games.
The Chiefs and their opponents tend to use the first half to feel things out, then make those halftime adjustments. And then, boom, the offense takes off.
The long pregame routine of introductions and anthems tends to have the players tight early in the game, and it shows with the lacks of points.
So the highest scoring half to be the second half is my wager on the total.
PICK: Second half to be highest-scoring half (-115)
Geoff Schwartz is an NFL analyst for FOX Sports. He played eight seasons in the NFL for five different teams. He started at right tackle for the University of Oregon for three seasons and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection his senior year. Follow him on Twitter @GeoffSchwartz.
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