With football in hibernation, the offseason has predictably turned into a breeding ground for hypotheticals and premature hot takes.
Both college and NFL action are months away, so the conversation has shifted-rather frantically-from celebrating the 2025 NFL Draft to speculating about the 2026 class. And at the heart of those early projections is Arch Manning, a player with more name value than actual college tape.
Texas’ new QB1 is suddenly a centerpiece in mock drafts everywhere, despite having just two college starts to his name. After two seasons sitting behind Quinn Ewers, Manning‘s time has finally arrived. But even before he’s taken a meaningful snap as a starter, people are ready to propel him into the NFL spotlight.
The only problem? There’s zero substance behind the hype-at least not yet.
Scouts and insiders urge fans to pump the brakes
NFL insider Albert Breer recently addressed this premature buzz in Sports Illustrated, urging observers to stop projecting Manning‘s NFL stardom before he’s earned it.
“It’s time to stop the madness on Arch Manning,” Breer wrote, adding that even the Manning family is focused on the present, not the pros.
Breer‘s article included input from two AFC scouting directors who echoed his caution. Their consensus: the sample size is simply too small to evaluate him seriously.
“You just don’t know until they’re really playing,” said one scout.
“You could guess, but that’s really all you’d be doing-guessing.”
The other scout noted Manning‘s mobility and athleticism-a departure from the pocket-passing style of his famous uncles Peyton and Eli-but warned against overreacting.
“We haven’t really seen him run the offense with any consistency yet,” they said.
“You’d like to see him play against top-tier teams like Alabama or Georgia.”
There’s an undeniable mystique attached to the Manning name, but it cuts both ways. While it opens doors, it also brings sky-high expectations. Just look at Shedeur Sanders-once thought to be a first-round lock, he tumbled all the way to Round 5 in the 2025 NFL Draft. His slide proved that pedigree and early hype don’t always align with how NFL teams evaluate talent.
That lesson should be top of mind when it comes to Arch. Unlike Sanders, Manning doesn’t even have a full season of starting experience to lean on. His potential is obvious, but it remains exactly that-potential.
If Manning has a breakout season, leads Texas to a successful campaign, and racks up individual accolades, he’ll likely be viewed as a legitimate top prospect. But until those things happen, this narrative is driven more by legacy than merit.
Breer’s message wasn’t a dismissal of Arch Manning‘s talent-it was a plea for patience. Excitement is fine. Curiosity is expected. But anointing someone before they’ve played meaningful football only builds a pedestal too high to climb.
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