The duels between Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner have become the great rivalry of current tennis, a kind of “Federer-Nadal” of this generation. In 2025 and for the first time in the Open era, both have met in three men’s singles Grand Slam finals: Roland Garros, Wimbledon and now the US Open.
The head-to-head record on the ATP Tour favors Alcaraz, with nine victories to the Italian’s five. The Spaniard dominates on both hard (6-2) and clay (3-1), while Sinner has been victorious in both grass-court encounters, both at Wimbledon. This year, Alcaraz was crowned in Paris and Sinner in London. In terms of silverware, the Spaniard has five Grand Slams to the Italian’s four.
The clash adds even more incentives: the world number one ranking is at stake, as well as the biggest prize money in history, amounting to 4,291,770 euros.
The supercomputer is clear, the Italian is the favourite
Although Alcaraz dominates the head-to-head with a 9-5 record, the fact that the final is being played on a hard court favours Sinner. The Italian feels much more comfortable than on any other surface: of the last 33 matches, he has won 32. The only exception was the recent final in Cincinnati, where he had to retire against Alcaraz due to a virus when he was already down 5-0 in the first set
All this means that, according to the AI, the balance is slightly in Sinner’s favour with 57.2%, compared to 42.8% for Alcaraz.
The hard court, Sinner’s garden
Jannik Sinner arrives in the US Open final with the confidence of his impressive numbers on hard courts.If clay is Alcaraz’s den, hard courts are Sinner’s garden.
In it, he has chained 27 consecutive victories in Grand Slam tournaments. To find his last defeat in this scenario, you have to go back to the round of 16 of the 2023 US Open against Alexander Zverev. With this streak, he equals the second best historical mark, in the hands of Novak Djokovic (2011-2012), and only has ahead of him the record of Roger Federer: 40 consecutive victories between 2005 and 2008.
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