The Los Angeles Rams are heading into one of the most hostile environments imaginable for a postseason game. This Sunday, they travel to Soldier Field to face the Chicago Bears in the Divisional Round – and the forecast suggests it could become one of the coldest playoff games in recent NFL history, a problem for Matthew Stafford.
According to FOX 35 meteorologist Noah Bergren, models project air temperatures between 10-15°F with wind chills dipping to 0 to -10°F, accompanied by 20-30 mph gusts. That combination alone is enough to change how games are played. But for Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford, the conditions carry extra weight due to a troubling statistical trend.
Since joining Los Angeles, Stafford owns a 1-9 record in games played under cold, rainy, or snowy conditions, a mark that has fueled concern just days before kickoff.
Stafford’s cold-weather numbers add pressure in Chicago
Stafford’s struggles in harsh weather have become increasingly difficult to ignore. Analysts at Swift Sports Network note that his completion percentage drops to roughly 55% when temperatures fall below 20 degrees, compared to his usual efficiency indoors or in warm climates.
“[Matthew] Stafford has spent most of his career indoors in Detroit. He played all of his home games in a dome for the Rams; he plays inside in a dome this season,” Swift explained. “All but one of his games have been played in warm weather or indoors. The one outdoor game that was even mildly cold was against Carolina… It was 45 degrees… Stafford threw two interceptions in that game. Sunday in Chicago, it’s going to be far colder than that.”
The numbers support the concern. Stafford previously stood at 1-8 in extreme-weather games, with 54.6% completions, 14 touchdowns, 11 interceptions, and a 76.0 passer rating. That record dropped to 1-9 following a January 19 divisional loss to Philadelphia, where he still threw for 324 yards and two touchdowns, but ultimately fell short.
Complicating matters further is a sprained index finger on Stafford’s throwing hand. Though he insists the injury is no longer an issue, cold temperatures can severely affect grip strength and ball control two areas critical for a quarterback.
“Whatever it was there is gone now,” Stafford said this week. “It’s feeling great.”
Despite the noise, the veteran quarterback isn’t backing down from the challenge.
“There’s something to it, right, that feels right when football’s outdoors, you’re playing late in the year, it’s cold, it means a lot,” Stafford said. “I know it’s going to be a great crowd there, and it’ll be a lot of fun.”
Bears, history, and a frozen stage set the tone
This matchup carries historical weight. The Rams and Bears meet in the postseason 40 years after their 1986 NFC Championship clash, a brutal cold-weather game at Soldier Field that Chicago won on its way to Super Bowl XX. That legacy still lingers in the Windy City.
The Bears enter the game with confidence. They finished the season 7-2 at home, and rookie quarterback Caleb Williams is coming off a standout performance in the Wild Card round, throwing for 361 yards and a touchdown in a comeback victory. Defensively, Chicago leads the NFL with 23 interceptions, thriving on turnovers rather than raw yardage dominance.
Stafford acknowledged the challenge.
“They’ve got a… talented back end that catches the ball when it’s in their area,” he said. “They do a nice job up front as well affecting the pocket.”
Meanwhile, Rams receiver Davante Adams brushed off weather concerns during an appearance on The Stephen A. Smith Show.
“We’re gonna go out there and have a great week of practice and great week of prep,” Adams said. “Then we go out there, and it doesn’t matter if it’s 17 or seven or two degrees.”
The Rams may still boast one of the league’s most productive offenses, averaging 28 points per game over their last 12 contests, but Sunday will test more than playbooks. It will test toughness, execution, and resilience.
For Matthew Stafford, it’s more than just another playoff game.
It’s a chance to finally rewrite the narrative, in the coldest spotlight possible.
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