Paul Skenes may only be in his second year in the majors, but the buzz around his future is already reaching unprecedented levels.
The Pittsburgh Pirates phenom has not only emerged as one of MLB‘s most dominant arms, but he’s also sparking contract speculation that could shake the sport’s financial foundation – and put his potential earnings far beyond those of his headline-making partner, Olivia Dunne.
Fresh off a rookie campaign that saw him win National League Rookie of the Year and start the All-Star Game, Skenes has quickly proven that the hype was justified.
His fastball clocks triple digits, his ERA sits under 3.00, and his strikeout rate rivals that of seasoned Cy Young winners. The numbers speak for themselves, but so does his age – just 22 – and his box office appeal.
It’s no longer a matter of whether Skenes will land a massive deal. The only question is how far teams will go to sign him.
According to Jeff Passan, one of baseball’s most trusted insiders, “It would be no surprise to see Skenes – the best pitching prospect in a generation – parlay his productivity, age, and marketability into becoming baseball’s first half-billion-dollar pitcher.”
A generational talent – and a contract that could redefine the market
Comparisons to megadeals like Juan Soto‘s $765 million pact with the Mets or Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s $500 million Blue Jays windfall are no longer far-fetched.
In fact, insiders believe $400 million is the minimum Skenes could command once he hits free agency – which, due to MLB service rules, won’t come until after the 2028 season.
That means Skenes could become a free agent just before his age-28 season – an ideal time for a long-term commitment from a franchise looking for a cornerstone player.
And if his performance continues at this pace, he may break new ground for pitchers, outpacing even Zack Wheeler‘s current record annual salary of $42 million.
But with the Pirates floundering near the bottom of the NL Central standings and no postseason appearance since 2015, Skenes’ long-term future in Pittsburgh is anything but certain.
While fans dream of him being the foundation of a rebuild, executives around the league are wondering whether the Pirates will trade him to maximize his value before he reaches free agency.
The club faces a decision: offer Skenes a franchise-altering extension – which would be a first for the notoriously frugal organization – or cash in via a blockbuster trade. Either option represents a seismic move, but given Pittsburgh’s history, the smart money is on the latter.
Meanwhile, Dunne, a top NIL earner and social media sensation, has built a fortune through endorsement deals and brand partnerships. But even her multi-million-dollar portfolio could look modest next to what Skenes is projected to earn.
A half-billion-dollar deal would make him one of the most lucrative athletes in American sports history – and certainly baseball’s richest pitcher.
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