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The New England Patriots are the favorites, expected to win by at least a field goal but less than a touchdown (currently -3.5), in their AFC Playoffs game versus the Los Angeles Chargers. The predicted point total for the game is 46.5.
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Patriots vs. Chargers Odds & Betting Lines
Patriots vs. Chargers Prediction & Pick
Take the Pats to win on Sunday. New England’s defense has been stifling all season, holding opponents to only 18.8 points per game, and the unit is getting a boost from playing at home at Gillette Stadium. The Chargers’ offense, led by Justin Herbert, has been impressive, but the team will struggle to move the ball against a ninth-ranked pass defense that has limited opponents to 193.5 passing yards per game.
The final score is predicted to be Patriots 28, Chargers 17. The Patriots’ high-powered offense — featuring Drake Maye’s 258.5 passing yards per game and Rhamondre Stevenson’s 603 rushing yards — will be too much for the Chargers to handle. The Chargers’ defense has been solid, but the group will be tested by New England’s scoring attack.
- Pick ATS: Patriots (-3.5)
- Pick OU: Under (46.5)
- Prediction: Patriots 28 – Chargers 17
Prediction provided by FOX Sports’ Sports AI. Download the FOX Sports App for free access to Sports AI.
How to Watch New England vs. Los Angeles
- Game date: Sunday, January 11, 2026
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Venue: Gillette Stadium
- Location: Foxborough, Massachusetts
- TV: NBC/Peacock
- Live Boxscore: FOX Sports
Patriots vs. Chargers Recent Matchups
- New England owns a 3-2 record against Los Angeles in their last five matchups.
- Over their last five head-to-head contests, Los Angeles has scored 111 points, while New England has posted 96.
New England Betting Info
- Against the spread, New England is 11-6-0 this season.
- The Patriots have covered the spread seven times this season (7-3 ATS) when playing as at least 3.5-point favorites.
- New England games this year have gone over the total in 11 out of 17 opportunities (64.7%).
- The Patriots have compiled a 10-1 record in games they played as the moneyline favorite (winning 90.9% of those games).
- Based on this game’s moneyline, the Patriots’ implied win probability is 65.8%.
Patriots Stats
| Stat | Average (Total) | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards | 250.5 (4,258) | 4 |
| Rush yards | 128.9 (2,191) | 6 |
| Points scored | 28.8 (490) | 2 |
| Pass yards against | 193.5 (3,290) | 9 |
| Rush yards against | 101.7 (1,729) | 6 |
| Points allowed | 18.8 (320) | 4 |
New England’s Key Players
Offense
- Drake Maye ranks fourth in the NFL with 4,394 passing yards in 17 games this year, averaging 258.5 per game with a 72.0% completion percentage and 31 touchdowns (third in the NFL) against eight interceptions.
- To go along with his passing stats, Maye has 450 rushing yards (third on the Patriots), with four rushing touchdowns.
- TreVeyon Henderson averages 5.1 yards per carry (fifth in the NFL) and 53.6 yards per game, and has 911 total rushing yards. He has scored nine rushing TDs this season.
- Henderson’s 42 targets as part of the passing attack have resulted in 35 catches (2.1 per game) for 221 yards (13.0 per game) and one touchdown.
- Rhamondre Stevenson has 603 rushing yards with seven touchdowns (43.1 yards per game through 14 games).
- Stevenson has received 37 targets in the passing game and has 32 catches (2.3 per game) for 345 yards (24.6 per game) and two TDs.
- Stefon Diggs averages 5.0 receptions and 59.6 yards per game, and has 1,013 total receiving yards and 85 catches. He’s gotten 102 total targets, and has caught four touchdown passes.
Defense
- Over on the defensive side, Marcus Jones has three interceptions to go with 65 tackles, 8.0 TFL, two sacks, and 11 passes defended in 2025.
- Jaylinn Hawkins has 70 tackles, 3.0 TFL, 1.5 sacks, and four interceptions this season.
- Robert Spillane has collected 97 tackles, 4.0 TFL, one sack, and two interceptions this year. His tackle total leads the Patriots.
- So far this season, Harold Landry has 49 tackles, 10.0 TFL, and 8.5 sacks.
Los Angeles Betting Info
- Los Angeles has covered the spread nine times in 17 games with a set total.
- The Chargers have covered the spread twice this year when underdogs by 3.5 points or more (in three chances).
- Los Angeles games have gone over the total six times this year.
- This season, the Chargers have been the underdog five times and won four of those games.
- Oddsmakers have implied with the moneyline set for this matchup that the Chargers have a 38.5% chance to win.
Chargers Stats
| Stat | Average (Total) | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Pass yards | 212.2 (3,608) | 18 |
| Rush yards | 121.6 (2,067) | 12 |
| Points scored | 21.6 (368) | 20 |
| Pass yards against | 179.9 (3,058) | 5 |
| Rush yards against | 105.4 (1,791) | 8 |
| Points allowed | 20 (340) | 9 |
Los Angeles’ Key Players
Offense
- In 16 games played this year, Justin Herbert has amassed 3,727 passing yards (ninth-best in the NFL), while throwing 26 touchdowns (seventh in the NFL) against 13 interceptions and completing 66.4% of his passes.
- Herbert has also rushed for two touchdowns and 498 yards (third on the Chargers).
- Quentin Johnston has 735 receiving yards and eight touchdowns on 51 receptions, while being targeted 85 times.
- In 16 games played this season, Ladd McConkey has 66 catches (4.1 receptions per game on 6.6 targets per game) for 789 yards and six receiving touchdowns.
- Omarion Hampton has 545 rushing yards (second on the Chargers) and four rushing touchdowns, while averaging 60.6 yards per game and 4.4 per attempt (25th in the NFL).
- Hampton has also tacked on 32 catches (3.6 per game) for 192 yards (21.3 per game) and one receiving touchdown. He has been on the receiving end of 35 targets.
Defense
- Tuli Tuipulotu has 45 tackles, 20.0 TFL, 13 sacks, and three passes defended in 2025.
- Daiyan Henley has registered 3.5 sacks in addition to his 5.0 TFL, 101 tackles, and two interceptions over 16 games.
- Derwin James has recorded 2.0 sacks as well as 6.0 TFL, 94 tackles, and three interceptions in the 2025 campaign.
- Odafe Oweh’s stats include 38 tackles, 9.0 TFL, and 7.5 sacks in 17 games
FOX Sports used technology provided by Data Skrive and data from Sportradar to create this story.
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