Two weeks ago, the Ravens were a reeling team, with a record of 1-5 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS). Baltimore wasn’t getting it done on the field or at the betting window.
That’s to be expected with two-time MVP Lamar Jackson sidelined by a hamstring injury. But the Ravens won without Jackson in Week 8 against the Bears, then with Jackson in Week 9, drilling the Dolphins.
Still, that leaves Baltimore two games under .500 at ostensibly the season’s midway point. Yet the Ravens are road favorites in NFL Week 10 odds against a Vikings team that just notched a big road upset over the Lions.
And Baltimore has oddsmakers’ attention in another market, as well.
“The Ravens are favored to win the NFC North,” Caesars Sports head of football trading Joey Feazel said. “They looked like they didn’t skip a beat against Miami. They looked like the team that we had really high in our power ratings early in the season.”
Oddsmakers and sharp bettors serve up their insights on the Ravens-Vikings clash and more, as we dive into NFL Week 10 betting nuggets.
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NFL Rocks on FOX
Jackson returned in the Week 9 Thursday night game, and it was as if he never left.
He threw for a relatively modest 204 yards but completed 18 of 23 passes, with four touchdowns and no interceptions in a 28-6 rout at Miami.
Baltimore (3-5 SU and ATS) is on the road again this week, albeit with a couple extra days of rest. Minnesota (4-4 SU and ATS) is coming off a big win, as well, going to Detroit as a 9.5-point underdog and emerging with a 27-24 victory.
Caesars Sports opened the Ravens as 3.5-point favorites, and the line reached -4.5 a couple of times on Tuesday before settling at -4. And while Baltimore is getting early attention, it’s not all Ravens money for Sunday’s 1 p.m. ET kickoff on FOX.
“We’re seeing bettors take either the Ravens spread or the Vikings moneyline,” Feazel said, noting Minnesota impressed customers with its win at Detroit. “Bettors are going to remember that J.J. McCarthy really showed out against the Lions.”
McCarthy returned after missing five games with a high ankle sprain. He only passed for 143 yards, but that included two touchdowns, and he ran for a 9-yard score, as well.
“So this game’s got a little bit more two-way action. We’ll need that Super Bowl middle: A Ravens’ win and a Vikings cover. And bettors are taking the Over, too,” Feazel said.
The total opened at 47 on Sunday, then went through 48 and 48.5 to reach 49 by Wednesday afternoon.
NFL Sharp Side
Professional bettor Randy McKay is involved with the Ravens-Vikings game. He’s on Minnesota +4, liking McCarthy & Co. to at least keep it close at home.
“The Baltimore defense is the issue here. The Ravens were almost outgained vs. Miami but had turnover luck,” McKay said, alluding to an interception and two recovered fumbles. “Minnesota is getting healthy on both sides of the ball, and the Vikings’ defense should give Lamar Jackson trouble.”
Marquee Matchup
Eagles-Packers is probably the matchup that stands out most in NFL Week 10 odds. Philadelphia (6-2 SU and ATS) is coming off its bye week, while Green Bay (5-2-1 SU/3-5 ATS) just weathered the biggest upset loss of the season.
The Packers were 12.5-point home favorites vs. Carolina and tumbled 16-13. With that in mind, Caesars made Green Bay just a 2.5-point home favorite vs. Philly for the Monday night game.
“It’s been Eagles action for the most part,” Feazel said. “We know the Packers have a solid defense, but they’ve faltered against two bad teams this year.”
Granted, Carolina appears to be improving, but still, Green Bay was a double-digit home favorite. And in Week 3, the Packers lost to Cleveland 13-10 as 7.5-point road favorites.
Further, Green Bay is 1-5 ATS in its last six games.
“People remember the last week, and they remember the Packers’ inability to cover a spread,” Feazel said, noting many Philly bettors are banking on an outright win. “A lot of Eagles moneyline has come in.”
NFL Rocks on FOX, Part II
Rams-49ers is another notable game in Week 10 NFL odds, with a 4:25 p.m. ET kick on FOX. Los Angeles is 6-2 SU and ATS, while San Francisco — despite all its injury issues — is 6-3 SU and ATS.
When we last saw these two teams, the 49ers were without Brock Purdy in the Week 5 Thursday night game. But San Fran, an 8-point road underdog, pulled off a 26-23 overtime upset.
Fast-forward to Week 10, and Purdy still has a lingering turf-toe injury that could keep him out vs. the Rams. Los Angeles opened as a 3-point road favorite at Caesars, and midweek, that number is up to Rams -4.5.
“Week in and week out, the public has been on the Rams pretty significantly. And that’s what we’re seeing here,” Feazel said. “Action continues to pour in on the Rams. We expect that trend to continue and that we’ll need the 49ers at kickoff.”
Two-Way Traffic
Patriots-Buccaneers is also getting attention in NFL Week 10 odds. New England, which had a season win total of 7.5, is already 7-2 SU and 6-3 ATS. Tampa Bay is 6-2 SU/5-3 ATS, while coming off its bye week.
Caesars opened the Bucs as 2.5-point home favorites, and that line hasn’t moved at all, still sitting at Tampa -2.5 Wednesday afternoon.
“I’d expect this to be more two-way action,” Feazel said, while noting the public betting masses are getting more enthused weekly by New England. “With the Patriots being an underdog here, the moneyline is gonna be attractive to our customers.”
New England is +120 on the moneyline for Sunday’s 1 p.m. ET kickoff. So a $100 bet would net $120 profit (total payout $220) if the Pats win outright on the road.
I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
Let’s take a very short trip in the Wayback Machine to Week 9 Monday Night Football.
The Cardinals were 3.5-point road underdogs vs. the Cowboys, and one high-roller was all too happy to go in large on that number. The bettor plunked down a whopping $250,000 on Arizona +3.5 (-115).
Behind Jacoby Brissett (two TD passes, one TD run), the Cardinals led by double digits from late in the second quarter until game’s end, winning 27-17.
So the bettor banked $217,391.30 profit, for a total payout of $467,391.30.
How about something more relatable, though? At least in terms of amount wagered.
Months ago, before March Madness, a FanDuel Sportsbook customer put 10 bucks on a five-leg championship futures parlay:
- Florida +1400 to win the men’s NCAA Tournament
- Thunder +200 to win the NBA Finals
- Panthers +850 to win the Stanley Cup Final
- Dodgers +240 to win the World Series
- Bills +750 to win the Super Bowl
The Dodgers just converted the fourth of those five legs, beating the Blue Jays in Game 7 of the World Series. The bettor only needs a Buffalo Super Bowl to finish it off.
That’s hardly far-fetched, with the Bills currently the +700 second choice to win it all, behind only the Chiefs (+600), whom Buffalo just beat in Week 9.
If the Bills win it all, then that $10 turns into a massive $123,547.50. But it’s a long road to the Super Bowl. So the bettor also has the ticket up for bids on WagerWire, a secondary market for sports bets.
Based on WagerWire’s calculator, the parlay is now worth $14,535. That’s some serious ROI for a $10 bet.
Do you sell, or ride it out for a lottery-ticket-type win? If only all of us could face such a delicious dilemma.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on X: @PatrickE_Vegas.
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