Shedeur Sanders and the Cleveland Browns don’t stand a chance-at least according to the experts. Despite the front office’s push to rebuild and escape the AFC North basement, analysts believe the Browns are the least likely team in the entire league to win their division.
The 2024 season was one of the worst in franchise history. With a 3-14 record, Cleveland barely finished ahead of the Tennessee Titans and New York Giants-thanks only to league tiebreakers.
In an aggressive bid to reverse course, the Browns loaded up at the draft, selecting quarterbacks Dillon Gabriel and Shedeur Sanders, along with running backs Quinshon Johnson and Dylan Sampson.
Still, Washington Post analyst Neil Greenberg ranked Cleveland dead last in terms of division-title probability going into 2025.
The Browns and Sanders face long odds
According to Greenberg, it’s common for last-place teams to bounce back and finish first the following season. For instance, he gave the San Francisco 49ers a 36% chance of winning the NFC West after finishing last in 2024.
But that NFL magic doesn’t extend to Cleveland. Based on his power rankings and sportsbook data, here are the odds for each last-place team to win its division in 2025:
- San Francisco 49ers, NFC Oeste: 36%
- Chicago Bears, NFC Norte: 17%
- New England Patriots, AFC Este: 15%
- Tennessee Titans, AFC Sur: 15%
- New Orleans Saints, NFC Sur: 8%
- Las Vegas Raiders, AFC Oeste: 6%
- New York Giants, NFC Este: 4%
- Cleveland Browns, AFC Norte: 3%
A crowded quarterback room, a tough road ahead
Head coach Kevin Stefanski now oversees a crowded quarterback room featuring Sanders, Gabriel, and veterans Joe Flacco and Kenny Pickett. But bookmakers are skeptical-setting Cleveland’s projected win total at just 4.5 games.
That prediction aligns with other analyses that rate the Browns’ schedule as the 13th toughest in the league. Factor in division rivals like the Baltimore Ravens, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Cincinnati Bengals-and the odds only worsen.
Still, the story of the underdog isn’t over until the final whistle. While analysts are pessimistic, the NFL has seen stranger things. As always, the human element defies pure data.
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