John Fanta
College Basketball Broadcaster and Reporter
The South Region will be the region of chaos! I can’t believe I’m saying that about the region that Auburn resides in, but the NCAA Tournament isn’t about who the best team has been all year, but rather who’s playing their best basketball at this time of year. Bruce Pearl’s squad has lost three of its last four games, and if you can find a way to limit their 3s, that could make a real difference. The Tigers got a tough 2-seed in their draw with a Michigan State team that looks primed and on a mission to make a very deep run. Tom Izzo has reached 15 Sweet 16s in his career and, now in year 30, he has a pair of bucket-getting guards in freshman star Jase Richardson and senior Jaden Akins, along with a top-five defense in the country. The Spartans are 27-6 on the season and have won eight of their last nine games.
The idea of “timing being everything” is unfortunately the case for Iowa State, with Keshon Gilbert not being available for the rest of the season with a muscle strain, according to head coach TJ Otzelberger.
All this said, upset candidates UC San Diego and Yale headline this region, as well as the North Carolina Tar Heels, who were surprisingly included in the field and will be in action Tuesday against San Diego State in the First Four.
Here’s a full breakdown of the region:
Of the top-four seeds, which team has the most favorable draw in this region?
The most favorable draw belongs to Michigan State because if the top-seeded Auburn Tigers were to meet Louisville in the second round of the Big Dance, they would be playing a pseudo road game in Lexington against the Cardinals. That was a mistake by the committee and some really nice treatment to Pat Kelsey’s team. Don’t get me wrong: Louisville has had a terrific season, and it’s great to see them dancing for the first time since 2019, but that’s quite a nice location draw for their fans.
That said, neither Marquette nor New Mexico scares me with the Spartans, and the 3-seed, Iowa State, is shorthanded without Gilbert. While 6-seed Ole Miss could be sneaky, led by Chris Beard and guard Sean Pedulla, I have a hard time believing MSU gets bumped earlier than the Elite Eight. If the Cyclones can lock down Richardson and find their scoring groove behind Curtis Jones, they could be dangerous, but the injury bug gives the Spartans a break.
What is the most intriguing first-round matchup in this region?
The best first-round game is Michigan and UC San Diego. The Wolverines won the Big Ten Tournament crown for the first time since 2018 behind Tre Donaldson and Danny Wolf, while the Big West champion Tritons have a star in Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones (19.5 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 3.7 APG) and a 30-4 record. These are two top-30 defensive teams in the country in what should really be a battle and a game that could easily be a second-round contest as the programs rank in the top 36 of KenPom. Can Michigan’s big man duo give the Tritons issues or will UC San Diego’s top-30 tempo dictate the game? I can’t wait to watch this one.
Who are the must-see players in this region?
I’ll pick five because it’s such a strong list of star power. National Player of the Year front-runner Johni Broome is the headliner and is must-see TV every time he hits the floor, while Jase Richardson has had an unbelievable emergence. Then there’s the showdown between Louisville and Creighton, which features Chucky Hepburn on one side and four-time Big East Defensive Player of the Year Ryan Kalkbrenner on the other. The Cardinals’ fast style versus a deliberate Creighton team should be fun to watch. And don’t sleep on John Poulakidas of Yale, who is averaging close to 20 points per game this season.
[MORE: 2025 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament bracket here]
What is the most likely first-round upset in this region?
I called it the region of chaos for a reason! I like both UC San Diego to knock off Michigan and Yale to beat an SEC team for a second year in a row with a win over Texas A&M. The Bulldogs have great balance and 3-point shooting to counter an Aggies team that is physical and prides itself on making you uncomfortable offensively. But the way Poulakidas is playing could frazzle the Aggies. If Texas A&M extends and shuts down that perimeter attack, then maybe this is a year when we see Wade Taylor and Zhuric Phelps lead Buzz Williams’ program on a run. But my gut says madness in this region.
Who will win this region?
I like the Spartans because they can contain virtually any offense in the country. They have the ability to get out in transition and create easy buckets, and Richardson can meet the moment. If this team’s front line rebounds and Izzo’s perimeter weapons keep a defense honest enough and hit shots, there’s nobody that MSU can’t beat.
John Fanta is a national college basketball broadcaster and writer for FOX Sports. He covers the sport in a variety of capacities, from calling games on FS1 to serving as lead host on the BIG EAST Digital Network to providing commentary on The Field of 68 Media Network. Follow him at @John_Fanta.
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