When the Dallas Mavericks logo appeared at No. 1, it felt like a plot twist.
The Mavericks won the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery with just a 1.8% chance, earning the right to select Cooper Flagg.
Within 24 hours, speculation moved beyond social media and into ownership circles.
How the lottery result sparked league-wide skepticism
Investigative journalist Pablo Torre said on the “Chapo Trap House” podcast that two NBA owners privately told him they believed the lottery was fixed.
“This was obviously fixed,” Torre recalled them saying. He added that those owners questioned whether NBA commissioner Adam Silver had remained fully detached from the process.
There is no evidence that the lottery was manipulated.
The NBA Draft Lottery is conducted in a secured room overseen by Ernst & Young, the independent accounting firm that supervises the drawing of ping pong balls before the televised reveal. Since 2019, the league has used flattened lottery odds to discourage tanking. The three worst teams each receive a 14% chance at the top pick, while other non-playoff teams receive decreasing odds.
Dallas was well outside that bottom tier. But improbable outcomes are not unprecedented. The Atlanta Hawks won the 2024 NBA Draft Lottery with just a 3% chance.
The context that fueled the reaction
The timing amplified the debate. Only months earlier, the Mavericks traded franchise cornerstone Luka Doncic to the Los Angeles Lakers. The move stunned the league and raised questions about the team’s long-term direction.
Winning the lottery immediately after that trade reshaped the narrative overnight.
Landing Cooper Flagg, widely viewed as the top prospect in his class and the reigning National Player of the Year at Duke, transformed Dallas’ outlook. Media personalities publicly questioned the optics. Prominent players reacted with visible disbelief. Analysts across major outlets acknowledged the improbability while stopping short of alleging wrongdoing.
The NBA has not issued a formal statement addressing the speculation. No official complaint has been filed.
Cooper Flagg’s performance shifts the conversation
On the court, Flagg has delivered.
He is averaging 20.4 points and 6.6 rebounds while shooting 48.2% from the field in his rookie season. The Mavericks remain seven games out of playoff position, but the franchise now has a clear centerpiece.
Transparency and perception in today’s NBA
The debate highlights a broader reality in professional sports. Even when procedures include independent oversight, perception influences public trust.
The lottery drawing itself is not fully televised live, leaving room for suspicion when low-probability teams win.
Since the 2019 lottery reform, several teams outside the bottom three have jumped into the top four. The volatility is intentional, designed to reduce incentives for tanking. Still, when a team with 1.8% odds lands a generational prospect months after trading a superstar, the optics draw attention.
The official record shows the Mavericks won a low-probability drawing under independent supervision. The league continues operating under the same lottery structure implemented six years ago.
The debate may fade. The numbers, however, remain part of the story.
Reporting based on comments made by Pablo Torre on the “Chapo Trap House” podcast, official NBA Draft Lottery rules and historical odds data, and publicly available 2025-26 NBA season statistics.
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