NASCAR Playoff Rankings: Which Drivers Have Best Shot At Title, From 1 to 16

Bob Pockrass

FOX Motorsports Insider

The first round of the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs is often considered one of not beating yourself.

But taking a look at the standings entering the 2025 postseason, and it appears that just hoping something bad happens to four other drivers might not be the best strategy.

Only 11 points separate seventh through 16th in the standings as they head into the playoffs.

Which driver will capture the NASCAR Cup Series Championship trophy at Phoenix?

NASCAR’s playoffs are based on three-race rounds (every team still competes even if not a playoff team). If a driver who’s still alive in the playoffs wins in the round, that’s an automatic bid to the next round. The four winless drivers with the fewest points are eliminated after each round.

Drivers have earned playoff points with stage and race wins, as well as based on their regular-season finishes, which are added to their point total when the points are reset at the start of each round, which can help them advance.

At the championship race, the best finisher among the four finalists is the champion.

The 2025 playoff tracks:

Opening Round (Round of 16): Darlington (1.36-mile oval), World Wide Technology Raceway (commonly called Gateway, a 1.25-mile oval) and Bristol (0.533-mile concrete oval). Teams raced at Darlington and Bristol earlier this year but haven’t raced at Gateway since June 2024.

Quarterfinal Round (Round of 12): New Hampshire (1.058-mile oval), Kansas (1.5-mile oval) and Charlotte road course (2.28-mile road course). The only repeat track in this round is Kansas, where teams raced in May.

Semifinal Round (Round of Eight): Las Vegas (1.5-mile oval), Talladega (2.5-mile high-banked superspeedway) and Martinsville (0.528-mile oval). Teams have raced at all three of these tracks this year.

Championship: Phoenix (1-mile oval). Teams last raced at Phoenix in March.

Here are my playoff rankings based on who has the best shot at winning the title:

1. William Byron
Hendrick Motorsports: No. 24 Chevrolet
Position: Second, +26 on the cutoff
2025 Darlington finish: 2nd
2024 Gateway finish: 15th
2025 Bristol finish: Sixth

There really is no favorite, as no driver has dominated this year. Byron has two wins this season (Daytona, Iowa), which isn’t the most but he did win the regular-season title and also leads the series in laps led. Plus a couple of trips to the Champ Four and coming up empty has to count for something.

Prediction: Championship Four

2. Ryan Blaney
Team Penske: No. 12 Ford
Position: Fourth, +20 on the cutoff
2025 Darlington finish: Fifth
2024 Gateway finish: 24th
2025 Bristol finish: Fifth

The 2023 Cup champion enters the playoffs with the momentum of winning the regular-season finale, which was his second victory of the year (Nashville was the other). He finished second in the regular-season standings, but the most impressive thing about that is he did it with seven races where he failed to finish. If he finishes races, he’ll go far in the playoffs.

Prediction: Championship Four

3. Kyle Larson
Hendrick Motorsports: No. 5 Chevrolet
Position: First, +26 on the cutoff
2025 Darlington finish: 37th
2024 Gateway finish: 10th
2025 Bristol finish: First

A lot has been made of the fact that Larson has just three top-five finishes in the 14 races since his last win. But don’t forget, Larson won at Homestead, Bristol and Kansas earlier this year, and Bristol is in the first round and Kansas in the second round of the playoffs. Yes, the fact Homestead is no longer in the semifinal round hurts him, but this isn’t a team that you should bet against. Larson has already shown the ability to get it done as he won the 2021 title.

Prediction: Championship Four

4. Denny Hamlin
Joe Gibbs Racing: No. 11 Toyota
Position: Third, +23 on the cutoff
2025 Darlington finish: First
2024 Gateway finish: Second
2025 Bristol finish: Second

Hamlin is tied for the series lead in victories with four (Martinsville, Darlington, Michigan and Dover). But he’s limping into the playoffs with just one top-10 (a 10th) in his last four starts. Of course, the question that is asked: Will this be the year Denny Hamlin wins the title? He has pretty much as good a chance to win it as any other year — and as much of a chance to lose it.

Prediction: Championship Four

5. Chase Elliott
Hendrick Motorsports: No. 9 Chevrolet
Position: Seventh, +7 on the cutoff
2025 Darlington finish: Eighth
2024 Gateway finish: 13th
2025 Bristol finish: 15th

Elliott has one win this year (Atlanta) but was in the hunt for the regular-season title, until a string of four consecutive finishes outside the top-10 before a 10th Sunday at Daytona. All year, Elliott has talked about the need to qualify well. He has improved that in recent weeks but not every week. The 2020 Cup champion will need to consistently qualify well to make it through the playoffs, where stage points can be key.

Prediction: Eliminated in semifinal round

6. Christopher Bell
Joe Gibbs Racing: No. 20 Toyota
Position: Fifth, +17 on the cutoff
2025 Darlington finish: Third
2024 Gateway finish: Seventh
2025 Bristol finish: Eighth

Bell made the Championship Four for two consecutive years. He believes it should have been three, as he contends he got the raw end of the deal in NASCAR rulings last year at Martinsville. He won the second, third and fourth races this year (Atlanta, Austin, Phoenix) but hasn’t won since then. In fact, he has just three top-fives in the last 14 starts. He’ll need to run there more consistently to get a chance to race for the title at Phoenix. But if he gets there, he’ll be a favorite.

Prediction: Eliminated in the semifinal round

7. Chase Briscoe
Joe Gibbs Racing: No. 19 Toyota
Position: Eighth, +4 on the cutoff
2025 Darlington finish: 28th
2024 Gateway finish: 17th
2025 Bristol finish: Fourth

Briscoe has a win (Pocono) and three second-place finishes in his last 10 starts. If he keeps that kind of pace, he very well could find himself racing for the title at Phoenix. But these tracks in the first round aren’t his best and he doesn’t have a lot of points to have a solid cushion. The key for Briscoe is, with six poles this year, he needs to take advantage of strong qualifying runs by earning stage points.

Prediction: Eliminated in the semifinal round

8. Joey Logano
Team Penske: No. 22 Ford
Position: 12th, +1 on the cutoff
2025 Darlington finish: 13th
2024 Gateway finish: Fifth
2025 Bristol finish: 24th

Logano won earlier this year at Texas, his only top-three finish of the season. But he’s a three-time Cup champion who seems to come on strong in the playoffs. Go ahead and bet against him and typically that won’t work out well for the person doing the betting. But just looking at performance this year, it’s hard to see that he will earn his fourth Cup title.

Prediction: Eliminated in the quarterfinal round

9. Alex Bowman
Hendrick Motorsports: No. 48 Chevrolet
Position: 16th, -5 on the cutoff
2025 Darlington finish: 35th
2024 Gateway finish: 28th
2025 Bristol finish: 37th

Bowman slipped into the playoffs, thanks to Ryan Blaney’s Daytona win, but that doesn’t mean he hasn’t been running well. He has seven top-10s in his last 11 starts. If he keeps rattling off top-10s, he’ll make it to the semifinal round. Don’t forget, he would have made it to the semifinal round last year if he hadn’t been disqualified from the Charlotte road course race for his car being too light.

Prediction: Eliminated in the semifinal round.

10. Bubba Wallace
23XI Racing: No. 23 Toyota
Position: Ninth, +2 on the cutoff
2025 Darlington finish: 21st
2024 Gateway finish: 21st
2025 Bristol finish: 19th

Wallace clinched a playoff spot with a win at Indianapolis, which was part of a stretch of four consecutive top-10s late in the regular season. But those finishes were sandwiched between six races of finishes of 22nd or worse. He can’t have finishes outside the top 20 and expect to go far in the playoffs.

Prediction: Eliminated in the quarterfinal round.

11. Tyler Reddick
23XI Racing: No. 45 Toyota
Position: 14th, -1 on the cutoff
2025 Darlington finish: Fourth
2024 Gateway finish: Fourth
2025 Bristol finish: 18th

Reddick, the 2024 regular-season champion and Champ Four finalist, doesn’t appear to have the speed or the execution he had last year. He only has five top-fives this season, and two of those came in the first three races. He’s in a slump and he’ll need to work out of it quickly.

Prediction: Eliminated in the first round.

12. Shane van Gisbergen
Trackhouse Racing: No. 88 Chevrolet
Position: Sixth, +16 on the cutoff
2025 Darlington finish: 20th
2024 Gateway finish: N/A
2025 Bristol finish: 38th

If van Gisbergen can get out of the first round, then the ability to make it to the semifinal round becomes quite real, as he will be the favorite at the Charlotte road course. SVG has won the last four road courses this year (Mexico City, Chicago Street, Sonoma and Watkins Glen). But even with a little bit of a points cushion, the tracks in the first round don’t line up great for him. Well, he has never been to Gateway, so hard to know if he will adapt quickly to that track.

Prediction: Eliminated in the first round.

13. Ross Chastain
Trackhouse Racing: No. 1 Chevrolet
Position: 11th, +1 on the cutoff
2025 Darlington finish: Seventh
2024 Gateway finish: 12th
2025 Bristol finish: Seventh

Chastain made the playoffs, as he won at Charlotte. Since that Memorial Day weekend victory, he has no top-fives and just three top-10 finishes. Trackhouse just released its competition director, Tony Lunders, as it appears to be overhauling its competition department. There’s little reason to think a turnaround is coming over the next 10 weeks. But Chastain does show grit, and that will get him through the first round.

Prediction: Eliminated in the quarterfinal round.

14. Austin Cindric
Team Penske: No. 2 Ford
Position: 10th, +2 on the cutoff
2025 Darlington finish: 11th
2024 Gateway finish: First
2025 Bristol finish: 17th

Cindric made the playoffs with a victory at Talladega in April. Since then, he has had just one top-five and two top-10s. The Team Penske organization seems to be struggling as a whole. Then again, they often do, and the playoff tracks are some of their best tracks to spark a turnaround.

Prediction: Eliminated in the quarterfinal round.

15. Austin Dillon

Richard Childress Racing: No. 3 Chevrolet
Position: 15th, -2 on the cutoff
2025 Darlington finish: 23rd
2024 Gateway finish: Sixth
2025 Bristol finish: 10th

Dillon’s victory at Richmond a couple of weeks ago was his first top-five of the year. While they have shown more speed in recent weeks, Dillon likely can’t afford any mulligans in the playoffs. And it’s rare that a driver can make it to the championship without them.

Prediction: Eliminated in the first round.

16. Josh Berry
Wood Brothers Racing: No. 21 Ford
Position: 13th, -1 on the cutoff
2025 Darlington finish: 36th
2024 Gateway finish: 36th
2025 Bristol finish: 12th

Berry won at Las Vegas early in the season and hasn’t had a top-five since then. Much like the commentary for Cindric, this Penske-affiliated team has just been in the mix enough in the last two months to feel good about making a deep run into the playoffs.

Prediction: Eliminated in the first round.

Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR and INDYCAR for FOX Sports. He has spent decades covering motorsports, including over 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @bobpockrass.

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